机器人冲击、产业结构转型与就业正规性  

Robot Shocks,Industrial Structure Changes and Employment Formality

作　　者：朱峰 李浩然 傅志明 ZHU Feng;LI Haoran;FU Zhiming(School of Economics,Sichuan University,Chengdu,610065)

机构地区：[1]四川大学经济学院

出　　处：《中国经济问题》2024年第2期182-196,共15页China Economic Studies

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学基金资助项目(22XJC790003)。

摘　　要：本文利用中国家庭追踪调查2012年至2018年数据,使用Probit模型考察了机器人冲击和产业结构转型对就业正规性转换的影响。研究表明,机器人冲击仅单向推动劳动者从正规就业转向非正规就业,不影响其反方向的就业正规性转换,而产业结构转型不影响其就业正规性选择。异质性分析表明,机器人冲击通过就业替代效应实现这一单向作用,表现为第二产业的正规就业者被挤出到第三产业的非正规部门,且其主要影响低技能水平和居于较小规模城市劳动者的就业决策。本文为正确理解我国就业正规性问题和实现共同富裕目标提供了新的事实依据。This study,based on China Family Panel Studies data from 2012 to 2018,uses a Probit model to explore how robot shocks and industrial structure changes impact transitions in employment formality.Findings show that robot shocks unidirectionally drive workers from formal to informal employment,with no effect in the reverse direction.Industrial structure changes,however,do not influence formality choices.Heterogeneity analysis reveals that robot shocks achieve this effect by displacing formal employment in the secondary sector into informal employment in the tertiary sector,particularly affecting low-skilled workers and those in smaller cities.The paper provides new empirical evidence on employment formali-ty issues in China,contributing to the understanding and pursuit of common prosperity goals.

关 键 词：机器人渗透度 产业结构转型 非正规就业 

分 类 号：F426.67[经济管理—产业经济] F121.3F249.2