平衡多维度的能源转型——2024年剑桥能源周主要观点  

Key insights from CERAWeek 2024

作　　者：陆如泉[1] 徐冰 单卫国[1] 张兴阳[3] 刘佳[1] 仇玄[4] 王曦[3] 郝海波 张鹏程[1] LU Ruquan;XU Bing;SHAN Weiguo;ZHANG Xingyang;LIU Jia;QIU Xuan;WANG Xi;HAO Haibo;ZHANG Pengcheng(CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute;China National Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Co.,Ltd.;PetroChina Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development;PetroChina Planning and Engineering Institute;CNPC Policy Department)

机构地区：[1]中国石油集团经济技术研究院 [2]中国石油国际勘探开发公司专家中心 [3]中国石油勘探开发研究院 [4]中国石油规划总院 [5]中国石油集团政策研究室

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2024年第5期1-9,63,共10页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：2024年第42届剑桥能源周以“多维能源转型:市场、气候、技术与地缘政治”为主题,深入探讨应对动荡世界的能源策略。本届能源周就复杂地缘政治格局下保障能源安全,推动公正、可持续能源转型展开讨论,议题涵盖地缘政治、全球经济、油气市场、能源融资、应对气候变化、碳市场及产业政策,以及生成式人工智能(AI)、氢能、生物燃料、甲烷控排、碳捕集利用与封存技术(CCUS)、地热和核聚变等技术发展问题。同时也展现了各国低碳与新能源政策的差异,以及石油公司在应对低碳转型、技术创新等问题时的战略思维和实施路径差异。建议中国能源企业、智库和研究机构积极参会并发出中国声音,增强与国际公司和国外机构的合作交流,以商界和学界纽带对冲政治压力;密切关注国际石油公司归核化趋势,积极开拓海外优质新项目,把握发展中国家市场增长机遇;中国炼化企业应加快走向海外市场,扩大出口规模,提升炼化产能利用率和资产回报率,更好地实现业务的转型与战略接替。CERAWeek 2024 was organized under the theme of Multidimensional Energy Transition:markets,climate,technology and geopolitics,and provided an in-depth discussion on energy strategies for a turbulent world.CERAWeek 2024 focused on securing energy security and promoting energy transition in a complex geopolitical landscape,with topics ranging from geopolitics,the global economy,oil and gas markets,energy finance,climate change,carbon business,industrial policy,generative A,hydrogen biofuels,methane emissions control,carbon capture,utilization and storage(CCUS),geothermal,and nuclear fusion technologies.It also showed the differences in low-carbon and new energy policies among countries,as well as the differences in strategic thinking and implementation paths of oil companies in addressing the low-carbon transition and technological innovation.It is recommended that Chinese energy companies,think tanks,and research insttutes actively participate and make China's voice heard in the conference,enhance cooperation and communication with intemational companies and foreign institutions,hedge political pressure with business and academic ties,pay close attention to the trend ofrefocusing strategy ofintermnational oil companies,actively explore new high-quality overseas projects,and grasp the growth opportunities of the developing country market.At the same time,China's refining enterprises should accelerate their efforts to move to overseas markets,expand their export scale,and improve the capacity utilization rate and return on assets of refining enterprises,so as to realize its business transition and strategy succession.

关 键 词：剑桥能源周 能源转型 油气行业 新能源 国际合作 能源地缘政治 

分 类 号：F416.2[经济管理—产业经济]