德国天然气应急计划内容及效果展望  

Analysis and outlook of Germany's natural gas emergency plan

作　　者：李鹏辉 LI Penghui(China Fire and Rescue Institute;China Institute of Contemporary International Relations)

机构地区：[1]中国消防救援学院 [2]中国现代国际关系研究院

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2024年第5期32-41,共10页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：德国天然气消费对外依赖度高,在乌克兰危机背景下天然气供应中断风险显著上升。为化解不断加剧的能源危机,德国在遵循欧盟相关规则基础上,结合本国实际和历史经验,制定了新的天然气应急计划。该应急计划内容涵盖应急准备、评估预警和响应处置全过程,从政策框架、法制机制、操作执行等方面详细阐述了德国为应对天然气中断的行动安排,具有较强的针对性和可操作性。应急计划体现了德国在能源政策上的前瞻性,德国政府在能源危机应对中发挥了核心作用。从应急计划的实施情况及效果看,短期内对乌克兰危机引发的能源危机起到了一定的缓解作用,但长期效果有待观察。德国政府仍需要做好短期应急与长远规划的衔接和平衡,在实践检验中不断对应急计划复盘完善。Germany's natural gas consumption is highly dependent on foreign countries,and the risk of natural gas supply interruption has increased significantly in the context of the Russia-Ukraine issue.In order to resolve the intensifying energy crisis,Germany has formulated a new natural gas emergency plan based on following the relevant EU rules and combining its own actual and historical experience.The plan covers the stages of emergency preparedness,assessment and early warning,and response and disposal.It elaborates on Germany's action arrangements to cope with natural gas disruptions from such aspects as policy framework,legal mechanism,and operation and implementation,which are highly relevant and operable.The contingency plan refects Germany's forward-looking approach to energy policy,and the German government has played a core role in the response to the energy crisis.From the implementation of the contingency plan and its effect,it would ease the short-term energy crisis triggered by the Ukraine issue,but the long-term effect remains uncertain.The German government still needs to do a good job of connecting and balancing short-term emergency response and long-term planning,and constantly review and improve the emergency response plan in practice.

关 键 词：德国 能源危机 天然气 供应安全 应急计划 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济]