“挤入效应”还是“挤出效应”:养老金与家庭养老  

The"crowding-in effect"or the"crowding-out effect":pensions and family support for the elderly

作　　者：马健瑞 刘一伟 MA Jianrui;LIU Yiwei

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院工业经济研究所,北京100006 [2]中央财经大学政府管理学院,北京100081

出　　处：《社会保障研究》2024年第2期53-64,共12页Social Security Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“从子女反哺到父母逆反哺:老龄化背景下高房价对家庭代际经济支持的影响研究”(项目号:72204281);北京市社科基金青年项目“全生命周期下北京老年人口健康素养的形成机制及其积极老龄化效应研究”(项目号:21SRC025)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：基于2014年和2018年中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查数据,将家庭养老分为经济供养、精神慰藉和生活照料三个维度,检验养老金对家庭养老的影响,结果发现:养老金对家庭养老同时产生显著的“挤入效应”和“挤出效应”,二者呈现非线性关系。其中,养老金与经济供养呈现倒“U”型关系,养老金与精神慰藉呈现“U”型关系,但是养老金对生活照料没有显著影响。异质性分析发现:养老金的“挤入效应”主要体现在女性与老年人样本中;养老金的“挤出效应”主要体现在男性与城镇老年人样本中;养老金的“挤入效应”与“挤出效应”同时体现在低龄老年群体中。影响机制分析发现,老年人居住模式、健康水平与家庭决策权是养老金产生“挤入效应”与“挤出效应”的重要渠道。因此,应进一步完善我国养老保险制度,建构社会养老与家庭养老的互补机制,明确社会养老和家庭养老的职责分工,推动两者的有机结合。Based on the CLHLS data in 2014 and 2018,this paper divides family support for the elderly into three dimensions including economic support,spiritual comfort and life care,and examines the impact of pension on family support for the elderly.The results show the pension has a significant"crowding-in effect"and"crowding-out effect"on the family support for the elderly at the same time,which presents a nonlinear relationship.The relationship between pension and economic support shows inverted U-shaped,and the relationship between pension and spiritual comfort shows U-shaped,but pensions have no significant impact on life care.Heterogeneity analysis results show that the"crowding-in effect"of pension is mainly reflected in female and elderly samples.The"crowding-out effect"of pension is mainly reflected in male and urban elderly samples.The"crowding-in effect"and"crowding-out effect"of pension are both reflected in the younger age groups.The analysis results of the impact mechanism show that the living pattern,health level and family decision-making power of the elderly are the important channels for the"crowding in effect"and"crowding out effect"of the pension.Therefore,it is suggested to improve China's pension insurance system,construct a complementary mechanism between social pension and family support for the elderly,clarify the division of duties of social support for the elderly and family support for the elderly,and promote their organic combination.

关 键 词：养老金 家庭养老 挤入效应 挤出效应 

分 类 号：D669.6[政治法律—政治学] F842.67[政治法律—中外政治制度] F719[经济管理—保险]