人工智能对青年就业的影响研究——来自OECD国家工业机器人使用的证据  

The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Youth Employment:Evidence from Industrial Robots Application in the OECD Countries

作　　者：刘金东 徐文君 王佳慧 Liu Jindong;Xu Wenjun;Wang Jiahui

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学财政税务学院

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2024年第3期3-17,共15页Chinese Journal of Population Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“失业风险冲击下青年群体收入差距的动态演化与长效治理研究”(编号:23BGL241)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：在人工智能为新质生产力注入动力的同时,世界范围内青年就业形势日趋严峻,关于人工智能是否会加剧青年失业的问题引发了广泛关注。文章使用工业机器人数据和OECD国家面板数据,实证检验了人工智能对青年失业的影响。研究发现人工智能并未加剧青年失业,反而显著降低了青年失业率。不过,人工智能缓解青年失业的效应部分来自对临退休年龄员工的替代。由于失业回滞现象和“机器换人”的不可逆性会部分抵冲人工智能对青年就业的正向影响,人工智能对青年失业的缓解效应在经济下行期更为显著,但在经济上行期有所抑制,表现出反周期性特征。文章认为推动新质生产力发展与就业优先战略并行不悖,但应同时关注人工智能等新技术在缓解青年失业方面的局限性。Youth unemployment becomes an increasingly severe issue recently in the world,which coincides with the artificial intelligence(Al)development,and therefore raises concerns about whether AI exacerbates youth unemployment.This article empirically tests the impact of AI on youth unemployment using the panel data of industrial robots application in OECD countries,finding that instead of aggravating effect,AI has significantly reduced the youth unemployment rate.The effect partly stems from the substitution of older employees'positions.Furthermore,the phenomenon of unemployment hysteresis and the irreversibility of"machines replacing humans"partially offset the positive impact of AI on youth employment,which makes the effect of AI in alleviating youth unemployment more significant during economic downturns but suppressed during economic upturns,exhibiting countercyclical characteristics.The article concludes that the strategy of prioritizing employment is in line with that accelerating the development of new quality productive forces,but it is important to caution the limitations of new technologies like AI in alleviating youth unemployment.

关 键 词：人工智能 青年失业 新质生产力 岗位替代 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济] F249.1[社会学] C913.5