新兴技术和人口老龄化对劳动力跨省流动的影响  

The Impact of Emerging Technologies and Population Aging on Inter-Provincial Labor Mobility

作　　者：周康 邹杰玲 张俊森 Zhou Kang;Zou Jieling;Zhang Junsen

机构地区：[1]浙江大学经济学院

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2024年第3期34-49,共16页Chinese Journal of Population Science

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“中国人口老龄化对经济增长的影响路径与政策选择研究”(编号:20&ZD076)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：中国经济正在进行一系列结构性调整,新兴技术发展、人口老龄化与人口流动呈现出新的趋势。文章基于2000~2015年人口普查和小普查微观数据,研究了新兴技术和人口老龄化对劳动力跨省流动规模的影响。研究发现,新兴技术和人口老龄化是驱动中国劳动力跨省流动的重要因素。新兴技术更倾向于吸引年轻、高技能劳动力,同时通过互补作用吸纳更多低技能劳动力。人口老龄化使城市更依赖本地富有经验的中年劳动力和中低技能劳动力,但同时也通过产业转型升级增加对高技能劳动力的需求。此外,人口老龄化可以强化新兴技术对劳动力跨省流动的拉力作用。文章研究结论为优化劳动力资源配置、应对人口老龄化挑战提供了理论与实践参考,也为理解新兴技术发展和人口老龄化对中国劳动力空间配置的影响提供了实证依据。The Chinese economy is undergoing a series of structural adjustments,marked by emerging trends in the development of new technologies,population aging,and migration.Leveraging micro-data from the 2000 to 2015 population census,this study explores the impact of emerging technologies and population aging on inter-provincial labor mobility.The findings underscore the pivotal roles played by both emerging technologies and population aging as drivers of inter-provincial labor migration within China.Emerging technologies exhibit a proclivity towards attracting youthful and skilled labor,while also bolstering the absorption of low-skilled labor through complementary mechanisms.At the same time,population aging leads to a heightened reliance on locally experienced middle-aged and low-skilled labor within urban areas,while exerting pressures that augment the demand for high-skilled labor through imperatives for structural transformation and upgrading.Moreover,population aging reinforces the magnetic effect of emerging technologies on inter-provincial migration.The insights derived from this study not only furnish theoretical and practical references for optimizing labor resource allocation and addressing the multifaceted challenges posed by population aging,but also provide empirical evidence for understanding the impact of emerging technological advancements and population aging on the spatial configuration of labor dynamics within China.

关 键 词：流动人口 跨省流动 新兴技术 人口老龄化 

分 类 号：F249.2[经济管理—劳动经济] C924.24[经济管理—国民经济]