灾害性空间天气事件预警分级探讨  

Alert scales of disastrous space weather events

作　　者：张晓芳 白钧水 潘业欣 常博 ZHANG Xiaofang;BAI Junshui;PAN Yexin;CHANG Bo(P.O.Box 5111,Beijing 100094,China)

机构地区：[1]北京5111信箱,北京100094

出　　处：《航天器环境工程》2024年第3期260-269,共10页Spacecraft Environment Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:41874183)。

摘　　要：灾害性空间天气事件包括太阳耀斑、太阳质子事件、磁暴、高能电子暴和电离层暴等。准确有效的预报预警信息有助于及时采取措施以避免或减少损失。当前国内空间天气预报总体水平不高,不同空间天气事件的预报预警业务成熟度具有较大差别,业务规范性有待提高。文章在分析空间天气事件的特征和影响,以及现有服务和相关研究的基础上,对灾害性空间天气事件及其预警分级规范进行讨论,并在以下几方面提出建议:基于多环境要素综合判别空间天气事件;建立涵盖内外源扰动的电离层暴指数;适应现行监测能力和业务实时性,基于自主探测数据适用性分析建立预报预警规范;细化专业用户分类,按需设计保障产品。Disastrous space weather events include solar flares,solar proton events,magnetic storms,highenergy electron storms and ionospheric storms,etc.Accurate forecasting and early alert information help to take timely measures to avoid or reduce losses.At present,the overall level of space weather forecasting is not high enough,and there are significant differences in the maturity of forecasting and alert services for different space weather events in China.The standardization of space weather early alert service needs to be improved.Based on the analysis of the characteristics and impacts of space weather events in addition to existing services and related researches,alert scales of disastrous space weather events were discussed in this paper.Suggestions were proposed as follows:identifying space weather events based on the synthesis of multiple environmental factors;establishing ionospheric storm indexes covering both internal and external disturbance sources;setting up specifications based on the suitability analysis of autonomous detection data to adapt to current monitoring capabilities and real-time space weather services;refining the classification of professional users to design tailored products for guarantee.

关 键 词：灾害性空间天气事件 预警分级 空间天气预报 服务保障 

分 类 号：P35[天文地球—空间物理学]