安徽制造业绿色发展回归模型构建与对策研究  

Construction of Regression Model and Countermeasures of Green Development of Manufacturing Industry in Anhui Province

作　　者：胡发刚[1] 谢军[1] 丁和平[1] Hu Fagang;Xie Jun;Ding Heping(Suzhou University,Suzhou Anhui 234000,China)

机构地区：[1]宿州学院,安徽宿州234000

出　　处：《河北能源职业技术学院学报》2024年第2期72-75,80,共5页Journal of Hebei Energy College of Vocation and Technology

基　　金：安徽省社会科学创新发展研究课题:长三角一体化背景下安徽省制造业低碳发展路径研究(2022CX061);新发展格局背景下安徽省物流业与制造业协同发展研究(2022CX062)。

摘　　要：制造业绿色发展是经济绿色高质量发展的关键。为研究安徽省制造业绿色发展状况,收集安徽省2012-2021年十年统计年鉴数据,运用岭回归、变量自回归(VAR)模型,计算化石能源消耗、工业三废排放的回归系数,并计算综合回归系数,探索制造业与化石能源消耗、工业三废排放之间的互动关系。结果表明,化石能源消耗对制造业发展显著正向影响,且影响程度最大。工业废水、工业二氧化硫排放对制造业发展呈负向影响。工业固废产量对制造业发展呈现正向影响。基于模型分析结果,提出安徽省制造业低碳发展建议。The green development of manufacturing industry is the key to the green and high-quality development of economy.In order to study the green development status of the manufacturing industry in Anhui province,the data of the ten-year statistical yearbook of Anhui province from 2012 to 2021 were collected.Ridge regression and variable autoregressive(VAR)models were used to calculate the regression coefficients of fossil energy consumption and industrial waste emissions,and the comprehensive regression coefficients were calculated to explore the interactive relationship between the manufacturing industry,fossil energy consumption and industrial waste emissions.The results show that fossil energy consumption has a significant positive impact on the development of manufacturing industry,and the impact degree is the largest.Industrial wastewater and industrial sulfur dioxide discharge have a negative impact on the development of manufacturing industry.The output of industrial waste has a positive impact on the development of manufacturing industry.Based on the results of model analysis,the paper puts forward some suggestions on lowcarbon development of manufacturing industry in Anhui province.

关 键 词：制造业 绿色发展 岭回归 VAR 

分 类 号：F724.6[经济管理—产业经济] F427