考虑气象因素的金沙江上游流域春季中长期径流模拟研究  

Simulation of Spring Medium and Long Term Runoff in the Upper Jinsha River Basin Considering Meteorological Factors

作　　者：王旭 蒲文辉 WANG Xu;PU Wenhui(Yunnan Huadian Jinsha River Midstream Hydropower Development Co.,Ltd.,Kunming 650228,China)

机构地区：[1]云南华电金沙江中游水电开发有限公司,云南昆明650228

出　　处：《云南水力发电》2024年第6期132-137,共6页Yunnan Water Power

摘　　要：针对金沙江上游水文、气象要素复杂,来水预测困难的客观实际,对金沙江上游降水、气温的变化特征进行分析,找出影响气温和降水变化的关键因子,研究关键因子与春季径流的相关性、春季径流与气象站观测数据的相关性,确定影响春季径流的气象要素,搭建预测径流的气候模型。结果表明,金沙江上游春季降水年际波动缓慢,其中3月呈先增长后降低趋势,4、5月降水呈增加增长趋势;同年各月气温呈升温趋势,其中3月平均气温上升最快,4、5月上升速度相当;月平均最低气温与气候指标的正相关性最好,其次是5月降水量,最高气温相关性较低;石鼓水文站3、4月径流量与气候指标正相关性最好;预报模型的方程预测径流量可以与实际径流量达到95%以上的准确度,且都可通过0.05的置信度区间检验。The hydrological and meteorological factors in the upper reaches of Jinsha River are complex,making it difficult to predict incoming water.This article analyzes the characteristics of precipitation and temperature changes in the upper reaches of Jinsha River,and identifies the key factors affecting temperature and precipitation changes.It studies the correlation between key factors and spring runoff,the correlation between spring runoff and meteorological station observation data,identifies meteorological factors that affect spring runoff,and builds climate models for predicting runoff.The results show that the interannual fluctuations of spring precipitation in the upper reaches of Jinsha River are slow,with a trend of first increasing and then decreasing in March,and an increasing trend of precipitation in April and May.The temperature in each month of the same year showed a warming trend,with the average temperature rising the fastest in March,and the rising speed in April and May was comparable.The positive correlation between monthly average minimum temperature and climate indicators is the best,followed by May precipitation,and the correlation between maximum temperature is relatively low.The positive correlation between runoff and climate indicators at Shigu Hydrological Station in March and April is the best.The equation of the forecasting model can predict runoff with an accuracy of over 95%compared to the actual runoff,and both can pass the 0.05 confidence.

关 键 词：金沙江上中游 春季径流 气象要素 水文预报 气候模型 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]