基于随机森林预测模型的小清河复航前后水质对比研究  

COMPARATIVE STUDY ON WATER QUALITY OF THE XIAOQING RIVER BEFORE AND AFTER THE REVIVAL OF NAVIGATION BASED ON RANDOM FOREST PREDICTION MODEL

作　　者：徐鸿彬 温春燕[2] 李计珍 任宗明 Xu Hongbin;Wen Chunyan;Li Jizhen;Ren Zongming(Institute of Environment and Ecology,Shandong Normal University,250358,Jinan,China;Jinan Engineering Polytechnic,250200,Jinan,China;College of Environment Science,Beijing Normal University,100875,Beijing,China)

机构地区：[1]山东师范大学环境与生态研究院,济南250358 [2]济南工程职业技术学院继续教育学院,济南250200 [3]北京师范大学环境学院,北京100875

出　　处：《山东师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第1期72-79,共8页Journal of Shandong Normal University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(42077224)。

摘　　要：小清河是山东省内从济南流向莱州湾的一条河道,在断航26年之后于2023年7月复航。本文着重探讨小清河复航前后辛丰庄断面水文水质指标的变化情况,并进一步分析主要污染因子在复航前后的变化情况。通过相关性分析和主成分分析的综合结果表明,确定复航后可能对小清河水质产生重要影响的水质指标为CODMn和TP;通过随机森林模型进行预测分析的结果表明:复航后三个月内,相关水质的关键指标均保持稳定,且优于Ⅲ类水质标准。研究表明复航对小清河水质并未产生显著影响。这一研究不仅为未来的小清河长期复航计划提供有力支持,同时也对国家“三水统筹”政策的贯彻实施具有重要意义。The Xiaoqing River,a waterway in Shandong Province that flows from Jinan to Laizhou Bay,was reopened for navigation in July 2023 after being closed for 26 years.This paper focuses on the changes in hydrological and water quality indicators at the Xinfengzhuang section of the Xiaoqing River before and after its resumption of navigation,and further analyzes the changes of major pollutants and their potential impacts in water quality after the reopening.The results of correlation analysis and principal component analysis show that the water quality indicators that may have a significant impact on the water quality of the Xiaoqing River after the reopening are CODMn and TP.The prediction analysis results of the random forest model show that within three months after the reopening,the key water quality indicators remain stable and are better than the Class III water quality standard.The study shows that the reopening has no significant impact on water quality.The research results not only provide strong support for future long-term reopening plans,but also have important guiding significance for the implementation of the national"Three-water Integration"policy.

关 键 词：小清河济南段 水质指标 主成分分析 相关性分析 随机森林预测 

分 类 号：X824[环境科学与工程—环境工程]