中国畜产品供给和饲料粮生产的耦合协调关系及其时空分异研究  

Coupling Coordination Relationship between Livestock Supply and Feed Grain Production in China and It's Spatial-Temporal Differentiation

作　　者：李蒙 郑小燕 张园园[1] LI Meng;ZHENG Xiaoyan;ZHANG Yuanyuan(College of Economics and Management,Shandong Agricultural University,Taian 271001,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]山东农业大学经济管理学院,山东泰安271001

出　　处：《四川农业大学学报》2024年第3期707-714,共8页Journal of Sichuan Agricultural University

基　　金：山东省自然科学基金(ZR2022QG056);山东省生猪产业技术体系(SDAIT-08-11);山东省人文社会科学课题智库重点项目(2023-zkzd-018)。

摘　　要：【目的】厘清中国畜产品供给和饲料粮生产的耦合协调关系及其时空特征对于保障国家粮食安全,助推畜牧业高质量发展具有重要意义。【方法】对中国畜产品供给和饲料粮生产的时空特征进行分析归纳,并综合运用耦合协调度模型和灰色关联分析对中国畜产品供给和饲料粮生产耦合协调度的时空特征和关联因子进行分析。【结果】中国畜产品供给和饲料粮生产的耦合度等级总体处于高水平耦合阶段,但存在降级风险且空间分异特征不明显;协调度等级“倒挂”,由“中级协调”降至“初级协调”,且协调度等级的空间分异特征明显;各省(自治区、直辖市)协调度和首要关联因子间的关联效应同样存在差异,总体可分为因子促进型和因子约束型两类。【结论】从夯实生产基础、调整营养供给结构、完善社会化服务以及加强财政扶持4个方面入手,促使中国畜产品供给和饲料粮生产达到更优质的协调等级。【Objective】To clarify coupling coordination relationship between livestock supply and feed grain production in China and its spatial-temporal differentiation is of great significance for guaranteeing national food security and boosting the high-quality development of the livestock industry.【Method】Based on the perspective of feed grain security,this paper firstly summarized the spatial-temporal char⁃acteristics of China′s livestock supply and feed grain production.And then analyzed the spatial-temporal characteristics and correlation factors of China′s livestock supply and feed grain production coupling coor⁃dination degree by comprehensively applying the coupling coordination degree model and grey correlation analysis.【Result】The coupling grade of China′s livestock supply and feed grain production is generally at a high level of coupling,but there was a risk of downgrading and the spatial differentiation is not obvi⁃ous."Inversion"of the level of coordination from"intermediate level of coordination"to"primary level of coordination",with significant spatial differentiation in the level of coordination.Based on the primary correlation factor of coordination,it can be divided into means of production,system output,develop⁃ment support and infrastructure.【Conclusion】This paper argues that a four-pronged approach should be taken to strengthen the production base,adjust the nutritional supply structure,improve socialized services,and strengthen financial support,so as to promote China′s livestock supply and feed grain production to reach a higher-quality and coordinated level.

关 键 词：畜产品 饲料粮 耦合协调 时空分异 

分 类 号：F326[经济管理—产业经济]