基于区域空间经济整体规划与综合运输超级网络的铁路货运量预测建模方法研究  

Predictive Modeling of Railway Freight Volume Based on Regional Integrated Planning of Spatial Economy and Multimodal Transport Supernetwork

作　　者：张利军 钟鸣[2] 崔革 任智 ZHANG Lijun;ZHONG Ming;CUI Ge;REN Zhi(School of Transportation and Logistics Engineering,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,Hubei,China;Intelligent Transportation Systems Research Center,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,Hubei,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学交通与物流工程学院,湖北武汉430063 [2]武汉理工大学智能交通系统研究中心,湖北武汉430063

出　　处：《铁道运输与经济》2024年第6期143-152,共10页Railway Transport and Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52172309);中铁第四勘察设计院集团有限公司开发计划项目(20213h0606)。

摘　　要：研究以PECAS整体规划建模框架为基础,提出基于区域空间经济整体规划与综合运输超级网络的铁路货运量预测建模方法。首先,运用PECAS模型实现社会经济活动时空变迁及其影响下的大区域内货运生成与分布预测。其次,以综合运输超级网络为基础,通过构建包括公、铁、水多方式的货运广义阻抗函数来模拟货物运输方式之间的竞合关系及承运人的运输路径选择行为。最后,基于随机用户均衡实现综合运输超级网络的一体化网络货流分配。研究以长江经济带为例,对区域铁路货运需求进行预测,将网络货流分配后主要断面流量的预测值与观测值进行对比,以检验模型的准确性。研究结果表明,所提出的方法在大区域范围内可以较好地预测铁路货运流量的分配情况,为区域内铁路货运需求预测与铁路基础设施规划提供决策支持。This paper proposed a modeling method for forecasting railway freight volume based on regional integrated planning of the spatial economy and multimodal transport supernetwork using the production,exchange,and consumption allocation system(PECAS)framework.First,the PECAS model was employed to simulate dynamic socio-economic activities and predict the region-wide freight generation and distribution influenced by those activities.Then,based on a multimodal transport supernetwork,generalized impedance functions were developed,which encompassed different transportation modes including highway,railway,and waterway,to model transport contractor’s route choices and the competition/cooperation relationship among different transportation modes.Finally,an integrated freight volume assignment was conducted through the supernetwork based on the assumption of a stochastic user equilibrium.In this research,a case study was conducted in the Yangtze River Economic Belt in China to forecast regional railway freight demand and evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed forecasting model by comparing the predicted freight volume with the observed freight volume in the network.The results show that the proposed model performs well in forecasting the railway freight volume over a multimodal transport supernetwork in a large area,which,in turn,should provide good decision-making support for region-wide railway freight demand forecast and railway infrastructure planning.

关 键 词：区域空间经济整体规划 综合运输超级网络 铁路 货运需求预测 广义阻抗 

分 类 号：U294.13[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]