全球变化与极地气象研究进展  

Progress in Global Change and Polar Meteorology Research

出　　处：《中国气象科学研究院年报》2023年第1期112-125,共14页Annual Report of Cams

摘　　要：1全球变化1.17高空切断冷涡研究进展高空切断冷涡是中高纬度地区大气环流的重要组成部分,高空切断冷涡的出现往往会产生对流不稳定,导致各种高影响天气的发生发展。中国最常见的切断冷涡是东北冷涡,其发生发展不仅能影响我国东北地区的天气气候异常,也对中东部地区具有重要的影响。因此,有必要关注高空切断冷涡的形成机理和预测理论与方法。1 Global change 1.1 Future extreme precipitation in summer will become more widespread in China depending on level of warming In this study,CMIP6 and single model initial-condition large ensemble(SMILE)simulations were applied to reveal possible changes in the spatial coverage(RSC)of summer extreme precipitation(≥99th percentile)in China.Four different approaches were applied to provide a comprehensive assessment of RSC changes.Results indicate that the trend of RSC in summer for the period 1961-2020 in China is underestimated by raw simulations of CMIP6 multi-model ensembles.Further analyses suggest that the confidence in model simulations reflecting the observed change can be improved based on the two observation constraint approaches and SMILE-based approach.In addition.

关 键 词：对流不稳定 高影响天气 东北冷涡 极地气象 天气气候异常 大气环流 形成机理 预测理论与方法 

分 类 号：P45[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]