生产链贷款级差与货币政策传导质效  

Loan Gradient of Production Chain and Quality and Efficiency of Monetary Policy Transmission

作　　者：曹廷求[1,2] 庞念伟 彭江波[3] 常东风 CAO Tingqiu;PANG Nianwei;PENG Jiangbo;CHANG Dongfeng(School of Economics,Shandong University;Institute of State Governance,Shandong University;Shandong Branch of People's Bank of China)

机构地区：[1]山东大学经济学院,250100 [2]山东大学国家治理研究院,250100 [3]中国人民银行山东省分行,250014

出　　处：《经济研究》2024年第5期21-40,共20页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(19ZDA091);山东省“泰山学者”建设工程专项的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：疏通资金进入实体经济的渠道是提高货币政策服务实体经济质效的关键。本文以垂直生产结构下的生产链贷款级差为切入点,构建理论模型阐明贷款级差影响货币政策传导质效的微观机制,并基于上市公司数据进行实证检验。研究发现:宽松货币政策条件下,银行向上游企业发放的贷款比向下游企业发放的贷款更多,生产链上存在贷款级差,但上游企业未将贷款顺畅转化为实业投资,而是购买了更多金融资产。这一现象主要集中在经济增长压力较大、市场化水平较低的地区,以及资金密集程度较高、非产业政策重点支持的行业。从作用机制看,引致需求是贷款级差影响货币政策质效的重要渠道,货币政策作用于下游的力度偏弱进而对上游的引致需求不足,削弱了货币政策刺激上游实业投资的效果。本文揭示了当前货币供需规律的新特点,提出了资金进入实体经济渠道不畅的新解释,对疏通货币政策传导机制具有一定的政策启示。In recent years, China's financial aggregate indicators, including loans, have been expanding rapidly, but the response of the real economy has not been adequate. This paper takes the loan gradient of production chain as an entry point to give a new explanation for China's poor monetary policy transmission. The loan gradient of production chain refers to the fact that under China's industrial structure of large state-owned enterprises monopolizing upstream and small private enterprises competing downstream, banks will issue more loans to upstream enterprises. This paper adopts the methods of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis to study how the loan gradient of production chain affects the efficiency of monetary policy. Firstly, this paper constructs a theoretical model that includes upstream and downstream enterprises, in which the output of upstream enterprises is the raw material input of downstream enterprises, and there is a production linkage between upstream and downstream enterprises. In this theoretical model, we reflect the efficiency of monetary policy transmission through the industrial investment and financial investment activities of enterprises when monetary policy conditions change. Then, based on the data of A-share listed companies from 2006 to 2020, we test the existence of the loan gradient of production chain and the heterogeneous impact of monetary policy on investment activities at different locations of the production chain. Finally, based on the mediation effect model, we test the induced demand mechanism of the effect of the loan gradient of production chain on the efficiency of monetary policy transmission.It is found that the loan gradient of production chain exists and that under easy monetary policy conditions, banks will issue more loans to upstream enterprises and less to downstream enterprises. Upstream enterprises do not make more industrial investments, but rather purchase more financial assets. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that this phenomenon is prominent after enteri

关 键 词：生产链 贷款级差 垂直生产结构 货币政策 

分 类 号：F832.4[经济管理—金融学] F822.0