Epidemiological features of seasonal influenza transmission among 11 climate zones in Chinese mainland  

作　　者：Xiaohan Si Liping Wang Kerrie Mengersen Wenbiao Hu 

机构地区：[1]Ecosystem Change and Population Health Research Group,School of Public Health and Social Work,Queensland University of Technology,Brisbane,QLD 4059,Australia [2]Information Center,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China [3]School of Mathematical Sciences,Queensland University of Technology,Brisbane,QLD 4000,Australia

出　　处：《Infectious Diseases of Poverty》2024年第1期27-41,共15页贫困所致传染病（英文）

摘　　要：Background Previous studies provided some evidence of meteorological factors influence seasonal influenza transmission patterns varying across regions and latitudes. However, research on seasonal influenza activities based on climate zones are still in lack. This study aims to utilize the ecological-based Koppen Geiger climate zones classification system to compare the spatial and temporal epidemiological characteristics of seasonal influenza in Chinese mainland and assess the feasibility of developing an early warning system.Methods Weekly influenza cases number from 2014 to 2019 at the county and city level were sourced from China National Notifiable Infectious Disease Report Information System. Epidemic temporal indices, time series seasonality decomposition, spatial modelling theories including Moran’s/ and local indicators of spatial association were applied to identify the spatial and temporal patterns of influenza transmission.Results All climate zones had peaks in Winter-Spring season. Arid, desert, cold (BWk) showed up the first peak. Only Tropical, savannah (Aw) and Temperate, dry winter with hot summer (Cwa) zones had unique summer peak. Temperate, no dry season and hot summer (Cfa) zone had highest average incidence rate (IR) at 1.047/100,000. The Global Moran’s/ showed that average IR had significant clustered trend (z = 53.69,P < 0.001), with local Moran’s/ identified high-high cluster in Cfa and Cwa. IR differed among three age groups between climate zones (0-14 years old:F = 26.80,P < 0.001;15-64 years old:F = 25.04,P < 0.001;Above 65 years old:F = 5.27,P < 0.001). Age group 0-14 years had highest average IR in Cwa and Cfa (IR= 6.23 and 6.21) with unique dual peaks in winter and spring season showed by seasonality decomposition.Conclusions Seasonal influenza exhibited distinct spatial and temporal patterns in different climate zones. Seasonal influenza primarily emerged in BWk, subsequently in Cfa and Cwa. Cfa, Cwa and BSk pose high risk for seasonal influenza epidemics. The research finds w

关 键 词：Seasonal influenza Koppen Geiger climate zones classification system Chinese mainland Seasonality decomposition Local indicators of spatial association 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学] R511.7[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]