The risk of mpox importation and subsequent outbreak potential in Chinese mainland: a retrospective statistical modelling study  

作　　者：Xiaowei Deng Yuyang Tian Junyi Zoul Juan Yang Kaiyuan Sun Hongjie Yu 

机构地区：[1]School of Public Health,Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety,Ministry of Education,Fudan University,Shanghai 200032,China [2]Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies,Fogarty International Center,National Institutes of Health,Bethesda,MD,USA

出　　处：《Infectious Diseases of Poverty》2024年第1期63-73,共11页贫困所致传染病（英文）

基　　金：This study was supported by grants from Key Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(82130093).

摘　　要：Background The 2022-2023 mpox(monkeypox)outbreak has spread rapidly across multiple countries in the non-endemic region,mainly among men who have sex with men(MSM).In this study,we aimed to evaluate mpox's importation risk,border screening effectiveness and the risk of local outbreak in Chinese mainland.Methods We estimated the risk of mpox importation in Chinese mainland from April 14 to September 11,2022 using the number of reported mpox cases during this multi-country outbreak from Global.health and the international air-travel data from Official Aviation Guide.We constructed a probabilistic model to simulate the effectiveness of a border screening scenario during the mpox outbreak and a hypothetical scenario with less stringent quarantine requirement.And we further evaluated the mpox outbreak potential given that undetected mpox infections were introduced into men who have sex with men,considering different transmissibility,population immunity and population activity.Results We found that the reduced international air-travel volume and stringent border entry policy decreased about 94% and 69% mpox importations respectively.Under the quarantine policy,15-19% of imported infections would remain undetected.Once a case of mpox is introduced into active MSM population with almost no population immunity,the risk of triggering local transmission is estimated at 42%,and would rise to>95% with over six cases.Conclusions Our study demonstrates that the reduced international air-travel volume and stringent border entry policy during the COvID-19 pandemic reduced mpox importations prominently.However,the risk could be sub-stantially higher with the recovery of air-travel volume to pre-pandemic level.Mpox could emerge as a public health threat for Chinese mainland given its large MSM community.

关 键 词：Mpox(Monkeypox) Importation risk International air travel Statistical modelling Men who have sex with men 

分 类 号：R511[医药卫生—内科学] R181.3[医药卫生—临床医学]