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作 者:吴丽丽 田磊[2] 郭海涛[1] 李林[1] 郑威 Wu Lili;Tian Lei;Guo Haitao;Li Lin;Zheng Wei
机构地区:[1]中国石油大学(北京)经济管理学院,北京102249 [2]中国宏观经济研究院能源研究所,北京100038
出 处:《中国能源》2024年第4期90-99,共10页Energy of China
摘 要:2022年,乌克兰危机引爆欧洲天然气危机。俄气供给中断后,德国天然气供给缺口迅速扩大。面对全球天然气价格暴涨和俄气断供多重压力,为重新恢复天然气市场供需平衡,德国供给侧快速做出调整,与此同时其需求侧也展现出较大潜力。德国为摆脱对俄气的依赖付出了巨大成本,上至政府下到企业居民都采取了一系列措施以降低此次危机的冲击,并调整经济再平衡:家庭通过调低恒温器来减少天然气需求,而企业则转为使用其他燃料作为天然气的替代品,并进口能源密集型产品。尽管2022年天然气市场深度震荡,但德国通过需求侧调节和替代供应双侧发力,大多数德国工业和家庭天然气用户顺利度过了此次危机。德国成功应对危机,不仅得益于强大的经济适应能力,也得益于欧盟层面的团结与合作,以及各类政策的协调。The outbreak of Ukraine crisis has led to a gas supply and price crisis in Europe.After Russia cut off Germany's gas supply in the summer of 2022,Germany's supply and demand gap widened rapidly due to its dependence on Russian pipeline gas.In this case,in order to restore the balance between supply and demand in the natural gas market,the supply side first makes adjustments,and the demand side also shows greater potential.This paper analyzes the large but manageable economic costs of shifting Germany away from Russian gas and examines the adjustment process of the German economy.German households and businesses adapted to the disruption of Russian gas supplies in ways that had the least impact on the economy:households reduced gas demand by turning down their thermostats;companies turn to other fuels or fuel suppliers and import energy-intensive products.Despite higher gas prices in 2022,demand-side adjustment and alternative supplies have helped German households,as well as most German industrial gas users,get through the crisis.
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