基于InVEST模型和PLUS模型的云贵高原产水量时空变化特征分析  

Spatiotemporal Variations of Water Yields in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau Based on InVEST and PLUS Models

作　　者：郭佳晖 刘晓煌 张文博 杨朝磊 王然 雒新萍 邢莉圆 王超[4] 赵宏慧 GUO Jiahui;LIU Xiaohuang;ZHANG Wenbo;YANG Chaolei;WANG Ran;LUO Xinping;XING Liyuan;WANG Chao;ZHAO Honghui(College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences,Xinjiang University,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830017,China;Key Laboratory of Natural Resource Coupling Process and Effects Ministry of Natural Resources,Beijing 100055,China;Yunnan Province Field Science Observation and Research Station on the Evolution of Soil and Water Resources and the Carbon Sequestration Enhancement Effects in the Alpine Gorge Area of the Jinsha River,Chuxiong,Yunnan 651400,China;Command Center of Natural Resource Comprehensive Survey,China Geological Survey,Beijing 100055,China;Kunming General Survey of Natural Resources Center,China Geological Survey,Kunming,Yunnan 650111,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆大学地理与遥感科学学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830017 [2]自然资源要素耦合过程与效应重点实验室,北京100055 [3]金沙江高山峡谷区水土资源演化与固碳增汇效应云南省野外科学观测研究站,云南楚雄651400 [4]中国地质调查局自然资源综合调查指挥中心,北京100055 [5]中国地质调查局昆明自然资源综合调查中心,云南昆明650111

出　　处：《现代地质》2024年第3期624-635,共12页Geoscience

基　　金：山西省煤炭地质物探测绘院有限公司“地质灾害监测预警与防治山西省重点实验室开放课题”(2023-S03);中国地质调查局云南中“北部干热河谷区土壤侵蚀调查监测与评价”项目(DD20220888);中国地质调查局地质调查专项“自然资源要素监测与综合观测工程”(DD20230112)和“自然资源观测监测一体化技术体系研究”(DD20230514);科技部第三次新疆综合科学考察项目(2022xjkk090405)。

摘　　要：对云贵高原产水量进行定量评估与研究,有利于探究该地区水资源的动态变化、维护该地区的生态安全以及构建该地区的生态平衡,对维持城市水源涵养具有重要的现实意义。本研究利用PLUS模型预测该地区2025与2030年土地利用类型,利用InVEST模型定量估算2000—2030年(以5年为一期)产水量,并对其进行时空分析;剖析了不同土地利用类型及不同坡度等级下的产水量变化情况;利用地理探测器对产水量进行驱动力分析。结果表明:(1)2000—2030年该地区产水总量呈现“下降-升高-下降-升高”的趋势,其产水总量分别是:7.818×10^(7)m^(3)、5.750×10^(7)m^(3)、4.700×10^(7)m^(3)、9.162×10^(7)m^(3)、7.498×10^(7)m^(3)、7.820×10^(7)m^(3)、8.999×10^(7)m^(3);产水量空间分布呈现东南和北部高、中部低特征;(2)未利用地是该地区产水量最高的地类;(3)气象因子的变化是引起云贵高原年产水量变化的主要因素。地理探测器的分析表明降水量、蒸散发量对产水量的解释力较强,降水量和土地利用的交互作用对产水量变化的解释力最强。产水量集中在坡度为0°~5°的区域,占总产水量的43.80%。研究结果可为云贵高原水资源的动态评估、有效管理和可持续发展提供科学参考。Quantitative assessment on the water production in Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau is essential to investigate the dynamic changes of water resources and to maintain the ecological security and balance in this region.This is of great practical significance for maintaining urban water conservation as well.In this study,PLUS model was used to predict the land-use types in the region from the year of 2025 to 2030,and InVEST model was used to qua.pngy the water yields from the year of 2000 to 2030(every five years),with analyzing it in spatio-temporal perspective.We therefore analyzed the changes in the water yield of different land-use types and the changes in the water yields under different slope classes.Meanwhile,a geographical detector were used to analyze the driving forces of water yields of different land-use types.The results show that(1)the total amount of water produced in the region from 2000 to 2030 shows a trend of“decreasing-raising-decreasing-raising”with the total amount of water produced as 7.818×10^(7) m^(3),5.750×10^(7) m^(3),4.700×10^(7) m^(3),9.162×10^(7) m^(3),7.498×10^(7) m^(3),7.820×10^(7) m^(3),and 8.999×10^(7) m^(3),respectively.The spatial distribution of water production shows the characteristics of high in the southeast and the north,and low in the middle areas.(2)Unutilized land is the land type with the highest water production in the region.(3)Changes in the meteorological factors are the main reason causing the changes in the annual water production in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau.The analysis of geographical detector shows that the precipitation and evapotranspiration have a strong explanatory power for water yields,and the interactions between precipitation and land-use has the strongest explanatory power for the changes of water yield.The water yield is mainly concentrated in the area with slope gradient of~0°-5°,which accounts for 43.80%of the total water yield.The results of this study provide scie.pngic references for the dynamic assessment,effective management,and sustainabl

关 键 词：产水量 InVEST模型 PLUS模型 云贵高原 地理探测器 时空特征 

分 类 号：P641[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]