基于PCA-OLS模型的系统等效惯量中长期预测  

Medium-and Long-term Forecasting of System Equivalent Inertia Based on PCA-OLS Model

作　　者：于琳琳 蒋小亮 巴文岚 陈姝彧 晏昕童 文云峰 YU Linlin;JIANG Xiaoliang;BA Wenlan;CHEN Shuyu;YAN Xintong;WEN Yunfeng(Economic and Technological Research Institute,State Grid Henan Electric Power Company,Zhengzhou 450052,China;New Technology Engineering Research Centre of Ministry of Education for Transmission&Distribution(Hunan University),Changsha 410082,China)

机构地区：[1]国网河南省电力公司经济技术研究院,郑州450052 [2]输变电新技术教育部工程研究中心(湖南大学),长沙410082

出　　处：《电力系统及其自动化学报》2024年第6期101-109,共9页Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA

基　　金：国网河南省电力公司科技项目(5217L022001D)。

摘　　要：为综合考虑多重影响因素与系统等效惯量之间的量化关系,本文提出一种基于主成分分析-普通最小二乘法的系统等效惯量中长期预测模型。根据电网实际调度规则搭建简化的开机方式优化模型,构建系统等效惯量中长期预测历史数据集;利用主成分分析对系统等效惯量主要影响因素的多重共线性进行消除,得到主成分表达式;进行多元普通最小二乘法回归,反标准化后得到系统等效惯量解析模型。根据某电网能源发展规划数据,对未来系统惯量水平进行推演,可快速预估不同运行方式下系统等效惯量的演化趋势及非同步电源承载能力。To comprehensively consider the quantitative relationship between multiple influencing factors and system equivalent inertia,a medium-and long-term forecasting model of system equivalent inertia based on principal compo-nent analysis-ordinary least square(PCA-OLS)is proposed in this paper.First,a simplified optimization model in start-up mode is built according to the actual dispatching rules for power grid,and a historical data set for in the medium-and long-term forecasting of system equivalent inertia is constructed.Second,PCA is used to eliminate the multicol-linearity of the main influencing factors for system equivalent inertia,thus obtaining the expressions of principal compo-nents.Third,multivariate OLS regression is performed,and the analytical model of system equivalent inertia is ob-tained after inverse standardization.Based on the energy development and planning data of one power grid,the system inertia level in the future is projected,and the evolution trend of system equivalent inertia and the carrying capacity of non-synchronous power supply in different operation modes can be quickly forecasted.

关 键 词：非同步电源 系统等效惯量 中长期预测 主成分分析 多元普通最小二乘法回归 

分 类 号：TM71[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]