基于SEM-ANN的数字人民币使用意愿影响因素研究  

Study on the Factors Influencing the Intention to Use E-CNY Based on SEM-ANN

作　　者：夏雨[1] 陈倩倩 魏明侠[1] Xia Yu;Chen Qianqian;Wei Mingxia(School of Management,Henan University of Technology,Zhengzhou 450001,China)

机构地区：[1]河南工业大学管理学院,郑州450001

出　　处：《技术经济》2024年第6期15-30,共16页Journal of Technology Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“数字金融生态系统演化机制研究”(23AGL010);河南省高校哲学社会科学创新人才支持计划(2024-CXRC-04);河南省高校哲学社会科学规划年度项目“数字金融生态系统的构建与演化路径”(2023BJJ019);河南省高校人文社会科学研究一般项目“数字经济背景下异质双渠道供应链融资决策机制研究”(2024-ZZJH-021);河南省高等学校哲学社会科学创新团队资助项目“大数据管理创新团队”(2019-CXTD-04)。

摘　　要：数字人民币是重塑我国支付新格局、加速数字经济进程的重要载体,但在用户推广方面仍存在诸多阻力,从用户的视角探究数字人民币使用意愿的影响因素具有重要的意义。本文以数字人民币为研究对象,在UTAUT2模型的基础上结合数字人民币的特点,构建数字人民币使用意愿理论模型;进而,以数字人民币首批试点城市的用户数据为样本,综合运用PLS-SEM和SEM-ANN方法实证分析数字人民币使用意愿的影响因素。结果表明,基于SEM的数字人民币使用意愿模型具有较好的解释和预测能力;信任、习惯、价格价值和社会影响对数字人民币使用意愿具有显著正向影响,而绩效期望、努力期望和创新意识对数字人民币使用意愿的影响不显著;此外,在作为调节变量的个人特征方面,价格价值与数字人民币使用意愿的关系受性别因素的调节;经验对价格价值、习惯、社会影响、信任与用户使用意愿的关系均具有调节作用;将结构方程模型与人工神经网络相结合能够提升模型的预测精度,并且影响因素的重要性有所改变,习惯最为重要、信任次之,其次为社会影响和价格价值。E-CNY is an important carrier to reshape Chinas new payment pattern and accelerate the digital economy process,but there are still many obstacles to user promotion.It is of great significance to explore the factors affecting the intention to use e-CNY from the perspective of users.Based on the UTAUT2 model and the characteristics of e-CNY,a theoretical model of e-CNY usage intention was constructed.Then,taking the user data of the first pilot cities of e-CNY as a sample,the PLS-SEM and SEM-ANN methods were used to empirically analyze the influencing factors of the intention to use e-CNY.The results show that the model of intention to use e-CNY based on SEM has good interpretation and prediction ability.Trust,habit,price value,and social influence have a significant positive impact on the intention to use e-CNY,while performance expectation,effort expectation,and innovation awareness have no significant impact on the intention to use e-CNY.In addition,the relationship between the price value and the intention to use the e-CNY is regulated by gender factors in terms of personal characteristics as an adjusting variable.Experience can regulate the relationship between price value,habit,social influence,trust and users intention to use.The combination of structural equation model and artificial neural network can improve the prediction accuracy of the model,and the importance of influencing factors has changed.Habit is the most important,followed by trust,followed by social impact,and price value.

关 键 词：数字人民币 UTAUT2模型 信任理论 创新意识 影响因素 

分 类 号：F832.31[经济管理—金融学]