沧州地区春霜冻特征及短期预报方法的研究  

Characteristics of Spring Frost in Cangzhou and Its Short-Term Forecasting Method

作　　者：秦俊灵 沈瑞珊 李琛 石新丽 张唯 QIN Junling;SHEN Ruishan;LI Chen;SHI Xinli;ZHANG Wei(Cangzhou Meteorological Bureau,Cangzhou 061000,China)

机构地区：[1]沧州市气象局,河北沧州061000

出　　处：《黑龙江农业科学》2024年第7期43-48,共6页Heilongjiang Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：沧州市气象局科研开发项目(22CZ13)。

摘　　要：为提早做出春霜冻预判以减少对农作物的危害,利用2016-2023年沧州市春季气象资料,采用皮尔逊相关系数、TS评分等方法,对沧州市春霜冻特征和预报指标进行了统计分析及检验。结果表明,沧州市春霜冻发生在3月至4月,结束日期主要在3月下旬-4月上旬,多发生在晴朗、软风、低湿的天气背景下,空间上呈西多东少的特征。以单因素最低气温判定春霜冻是否发生时,多年平均差值(最低气温与最低地温)并非是最优指标,大多数气象观测站表现为前者低于后者。在日最低气温相同的情况下,天气状况和湿度是影响霜冻形成的关键因素,天气越晴好,湿度越小,越容易形成霜冻。加入天气状况和湿度因素后,以最优指标预报春霜冻时全区TS较单因素时提高了7%左右。检验证明,根据最低气温、天气状况、湿度,采用最优指标查表法预报春霜冻的预报效果更好,比普通查表法更适合应用在沧州市春霜冻预报中。In order to make early prediction of spring frost to reduce the damage to crops.Based on the spring meteorological data from 2016 to 2016 in Cangzhou,the characteristics and forecast indexes of spring frost in Cangzhou City were analyzed and tested by using the methods of Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient and TS scores.The results showed that spring frost in Cangzhou City occurred in March and April,the end date was mainly in late march-early April,mostly occurred in sunny,soft wind,low humid weather background,space was more west and less east characteristics.The multi-year mean difference(minimum air temperature and minimum ground temperature)was not the best index when the single factor minimum air temperature was used to judge whether spring frost occurs or not.At the same daily minimum temperature,weather conditions and humidity were the key factors affecting the formation of frost,the better the weather,the lower the humidity,the easier the formation of frost.After adding weather conditions and humidity factors,the TS of spring frost forecast by the best index increased about 7%than that of single factor forecast.The result shows that it is better to use the optimal index look-up table method to forecast spring frost according to the lowest temperature,weather condition and humidity.

关 键 词：春霜冻 预报最优指标 天气状况 湿度 查表法 

分 类 号：S425[农业科学—植物保护]