四川省小时极值降水统计参数空间分布特征研究  

Study on Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Statistical Parameters of Hourly Extreme Precipitation in Sichuan Province

作　　者：王帅人 胡静 兰平 覃光华[1] WANG Shuairen;HU Jing;LAN Ping;QIN Guanghua(College of Water Resources and Hydropower,Sichuan University,Chengdu Sichuan 610065)

机构地区：[1]四川大学水利水电学院,四川成都610065

出　　处：《四川水力发电》2024年第2期1-5,27,共6页Sichuan Hydropower

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(51879172)。

摘　　要：笔者分别采用常规矩法与线性矩法分析了四川省328个站点的1、3小时的极值降水均值、偏差系数、偏态系数和峰度系数的空间分布特征。结果表明:四川省1、3小时极值降水均值、偏差系数、峰度系数分布均具有从川西高原向四川盆地逐渐增高的趋势;1、3小时极端降水偏差系数的高值中心分别位于川西高原与川东的德阳市与绵阳市,空间覆盖范围与四川省龙门山暴雨中心一致;极值降水偏态系数分布整体呈现由川西北向川东南递减的趋势,高值中心集中在四川盆地西部;1、3小时峰度系数高值中心分别出现在攀西地区南部和川西高原西部。研究成果在四川省中小流域山洪预报预警的防御工作中具有重要的参考价值。The author used conventional moment method and linear moment method to analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of the mean,deviation coefficient,skewness coefficient,and kurtosis coefficient of at 328 stations in Sichuan Province.The results show that the mean values,deviation and kurtosis coefficients of 1-hour and 3-hour extreme precipitation in Sichuan Province are gradually increasing from the western Sichuan Plateau to the Sichuan Basin.The overall distribution of extreme precipitation skewness coefficients shows a decreasing trend from northwest Sichuan to southeast Sichuan,and the high value centers are concentrated in the western Sichuan basin;the high value centers of 1-hour and 3-hour kurtosis coefficients appear in the southern Panxi region and the western Sichuan plateau,respectively.The results of this paper have important reference value in the prevention work of flash flood forecasting and early warning in small and medium-sized basins in Sichuan Province.

关 键 词：线性矩法 极值降水 统计参数 小时雨量 

分 类 号：TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源]