基于改进层次分析法的航天器量化风险分析方法  

Study of Quantitative Risk Analysis Method for Spacecraft Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process

作　　者：赵毅[1] 魏玉波 赵林[1] 谢兆耕[2] 王临政 ZHAO Yi;WEI Yubo;ZHAO Lin;XIE Zhaogeng;WANG Linzheng(China Academy of Space Technology,Beijing 100094,China;Beijing Institute of Spacecraft System Engineering,Beijing 100094,China;Beijing Institute of Spacecraft Environment Engineering,Beijing 100094,China)

机构地区：[1]中国空间技术研究院,北京100094 [2]北京空间飞行器总体设计部,北京100094 [3]北京卫星环境工程研究所,北京100094

出　　处：《航天器工程》2024年第3期124-128,共5页Spacecraft Engineering

摘　　要：航天器研制风险的量化分析与评估能够有效提高资源投入和风险控制措施的精准性。为满足当前航天器项目对风险量化管理的要求,航天器风险识别与控制应覆盖研制全流程。文章采用改进层次(AHP)-模糊综合评价法,给出了风险分析与评估的方法及流程,并以遥感领域发射卫星为例,基于项目特点建立了覆盖技术、费用、质量、管理四个方面的风险要素集,运用专家打分得到风险评价隶属度矩阵,对风险等级进行科学量化,对项目间、项目内部风险要素进行分析,给出风险控制重点项目。在风险因素增多、项目数量上升的情况下,风险量化分析方法能够在比较项目间风险的严重程度、合理分配资源方面,为管理者提供更好的决策支撑。Quantitative analysis and evaluation of spacecraft development risks can significantly enhance the precision of resource allocation and risk control measures.To satisfy the current demands of spacecraft projects for quantified risk management,spacecraft risk identification and control of spacecraft should encompass the entire development process.This paper employs an enhanced Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)combined with Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method to present a method and process of risk analysis and evaluation.Using remote sensing satellite as a case study,a set of risk elements covering technology,cost,quality and management aspects is established based on project characteristics.Expert assessments are utilized to obtain a risk evaluation membership matrix,facilitating the scientific quantification of risk levels.Analysis is conducted on both inter-project and intra-project risk elements,with key control measures identified.In situations where risk factors increase and project numbers rise,the quantitative risk analysis method provides managers with better decision support for comparing the severity of intra-project risks and allocating resources rationally.

关 键 词：空间技术工程 风险管理 改进层次分析法 模糊综合评价法 

分 类 号：V57[航空宇航科学与技术—航空宇航推进理论与工程]