飞机离地姿态与飞行操作“因果-时序”耦合动态Bayes网络模型  

Dynamic Bayesian networks model for causal-time series coupling in aircraft takeoff attitude and flight operations

作　　者：张秀艳[1] 王琪 ZHANG Xiuyan;WANG Qi(College of Safety Science and Engineering,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学安全科学与工程学院,天津300300

出　　处：《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第6期1070-1081,共12页Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)

基　　金：天津市教委科研计划项目(2022KJ083);中央高校基本科研业务费项目(3122021031)。

摘　　要：在民航飞机起飞离地过程中,飞行员的操作失误容易导致擦机尾等安全事故。飞机离地姿态与飞行操作紧密耦合。针对飞机离地姿态与飞行操作解耦问题,该文以“安全II”模式为指导,关注飞机离地风险应对的全过程表现,对飞机离地姿态与飞行操作之间的耦合机理进行研究。根据安全韧性理论,构建了飞机离地姿态与飞行操作“因果-时序”耦合模型;基于国内某航空公司A319机队1359个航段快速存取记录器(QAR)数据,利用动态Bayes网络进行正常操作与超限操作的特征量化与验证。结果表明:该模型可对飞机离地姿态的动态形成机理进行有效分析;选择“重载”“轻载”“顺风”“逆风”等单一情景及其组合情景,通过调节关键飞行操作节点的概率分布得到最佳飞行操作模式。该研究得到了不同情景变量影响下飞机离地姿态与飞行操作之间的耦合机理,有助于提高飞行员的风险预测与应对能力。[Objective]During takeoff of civil aviation aircraft,pilot operational errors can easily lead to accidents,such as tail strikes.The aircraft takeoff attitude is closely related to flight operations.Therefore,focused on the decoupling problem between aircraft takeoff attitude and flight operations,guided by the“Safety II”mode,the coupling mechanism between aircraft takeoff attitude and flight operations is studied.This investigation considers the risk response performance throughout the entire process of aircraft takeoff.[Methods]The research is based on the flight quick access recorder(QAR)data of a domestic airlines A319 fleet.A coupling model of aircraft takeoff attitude,flight operations,aircraft performance,and flight environment is established using dynamic Bayesian networks(DBN)and Genie software for parameter learning and modeling.Daily flight data are deeply explored and fully utilized to study the causal-time series coupling mechanism between flight operations and aircraft takeoff attitude.Initially,based on the theory of safety resilience,the causal-time series coupling(CTC)model is developed to analyze the aircraft takeoff attitude and flight operations.Then,based on the QAR data of 1359 flight segments of a domestic airlines A319 fleet,the CTC-DBN model is quantified and validated using Genie software.Results show that the CTC-DBN model can effectively analyze the dynamic formation mechanism of aircraft takeoff attitude.Finally,single and combined scenarios,such as heavy load,light load,downwind,and headwind,are selected to determine the optimal flight operation mode by adjusting the probability distribution of key flight operation nodes.The coupling mechanism between aircraft takeoff attitude and flight operations under different scenarios is studied,ultimately improving the pilots ability to respond to risks in advance.[Results]The results indicate that the model can effectively analyze the dynamic formation mechanism of aircraft takeoff attitude.(1)The difference in aircraft weight is mainly re

关 键 词：飞机姿态 飞行操作 风险应对 快速存取记录器(QAR)数据 动态Bayes网络(DBN) 

分 类 号：X949[环境科学与工程—安全科学]