农村居民收入分配政策的模拟研究  

A simulation study on the income distribution policy of rural residents

作　　者：范金 张晓兰[2] 胡超 FAN Jin;ZHANG Xiaolan;HU Chao(College of Economics&Management,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China;Division of Economic Forecasting,State Information Center of China,Beijing 100045,China)

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学经济管理学院,南京210037 [2]国家信息中心经济预测部,北京100045

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2024年第5期1437-1449,共13页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(21&ZD081);国家社会科学基金(22BGJ035)。

摘　　要：党的二十大报告特别强调将追求全体人民共同富裕融入到现代化建设过程中.本文通过构建中国农村居民消费社会核算矩阵,模拟不同分配政策下社会商品和服务消费以及农村居民消费基尼系数的变化,以探寻完善农村居民共同富裕的分配政策有效路径.研究发现:扩大中等、扶持弱者分配政策不仅能促进社会商品和服务消费增长,而且能将农村居民消费差距控制在合理范围之内,是相对较优选择,而绝对公平、绝对效率分配政策是相对较次选择;政策模拟显示,教育文化和娱乐和医疗保健消费增长幅度最多,食品烟酒消费反而减少,显示有效的分配政策有助于我国农村居民消费升级转型;初次分配制度是促进农村居民共同富裕的主导机制,再分配制度是促进农村居民共同富裕重要手段,第三次分配制度是有益补充.为此,提出政策建议:完善收入分配制度,推进实现共同富裕;缩小居民收入差距,促进农民富裕富足;完善社会保障制度,不断增进民生福祉.The Report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China especially emphasized that the pursuit of common prosperity for all the people should be integrated into the process of modernization.By constructing the social accounting matrix of China’s rural residents’consumption,this paper simulates the changes of the consumption of social goods and services and the Gini coefficient of rural residents’consumption under different distribution policies,so as to explore the distribution policy path to promote the common prosperity of rural residents.The results show that:Expanding the distribution policy of the middle and support the weak can not only promote the growth of social goods and services consumption,but also control the consumption gap of rural residents within a reasonable range,which is the relatively better choice,while the absolutely fair and absolutely efficient distribution policy is the relatively inferior choice;The policy simulation showed that consumption of education,culture and entertainment and health care increased the most,while consumption of food,tobacco and alcohol decreased,indicating that effective distribution policies are conducive to the consumption upgrading and transformation of rural residents;the primary distribution system is the leading mechanism to promote the common prosperity of rural residents,the redistribution system is an important means to promote the common prosperity of rural residents,and the third distribution system is a beneficial supplement.To this end,the paper puts forward the following policy suggestions:Improve the income distribution system,promote the realization of common prosperity;narrow the income gap between residents and promote the prosperity of farmers;we will improve the social security system and improve people’s wellbeing.

关 键 词：农村居民 共同富裕 分配政策 社会核算矩阵 

分 类 号：F302[经济管理—产业经济] F201