基于SD-PLUS耦合模型的陕西省土地利用变化及碳储量多情景预测  

Multi-scenario Prediction of Land Use Change and Carbon Storage in Shaanxi Province Based on the SD-PLUS Coupled Model

作　　者：李倩[1] 王成军[1] 冯涛[1] 杜传甲 张炳林 LI Qian;WANG Chengjun;FENG Tao;DU Chuanjia;ZHANG Binglin(School of Management,Xi’an University of Arch&Tech,Xi’an 710055,China;Shaanxi Mineral Resources and Geological Survey,Xi’an 710068,China)

机构地区：[1]西安建筑科技大学管理学院,西安710055 [2]陕西省矿产地质调查中心,西安710068

出　　处：《水土保持学报》2024年第3期195-206,215,共13页Journal of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71872141,72072140);陕西省公益性地质调查项目(202202)。

摘　　要：[目的]为探讨不同土地利用方式对区域生态系统碳储量的影响。[方法]以陕西省为研究对象,利用SD-PLUS耦合模型,采用国际耦合模式比较计划第6阶段(CMIP6)提出的耦合共享社会经济路线和代表性浓度路线(SSP-RCP)情景,对2030年陕西省的土地利用变化进行预测,然后利用InVEST模型模拟未来不同情景下陕西省碳储量及其空间分布。[结果](1)对构建的SD模型进行历史检验,其误差<5%,PLUS模型模拟的2020年土地利用Kappa指数为0.86,模型精度和可靠性总体符合要求;(2)3种情景下,未来建设用地面积均增加,增长速率从低到高的情景分别为SSP126、SSP245、SSP585;在所有情景下,林地面积均增加,水域面积均保持稳定;草地面积在SSP126情景下有小幅度增加,其他情景下减少;耕地面积3种情景下均减少;(3)3种情景下,陕西省碳储量均减少,关中平原建设用地的扩张占用大量的耕地是造成陕西省碳储量下降的主要原因。[结论]在SSP126情景下,建设用地扩张所占用的生态用地面积最小,碳储量损失最少,该情景同时考虑社会经济发展及生态保护的需要,可为未来陕西省国土资源保护和高质量发展提供参考模式。[Objective]This study was aimed to explore the impact of different land use patterns on regional ecosystem carbon storage.[Methods]In this paper,using the SD-PLUS coupled model and the coupled shared socio-economic path and representative concentration path(SSP-RCP)scenario proposed by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6),the land use changes in Shaanxi province in 2030 were projected,and then the different future scenarios simulated by the InVEST model were used to predict the Shaanxi Province’s carbon storage and its spatial distribution under different future scenarios simulated by the InVEST model.[Results](1)The SD model constructed was tested historically,and its error was less than 5%,and the Kappa index of land use in 2020 simulated by the PLUS model was 0.86,and the accuracy and reliability of the model generally met the requirements.(2)Under the three scenarios,the area of future construction land increased,and the scenarios with the lowest to highest growth rates were:SSP126,SSP245,SSP585.Under all scenarios,the area of forest land increased,and the area of watersheds remained stable;the area of grassland had a small increase under the SSP126 scenario,and decreased in other scenarios;and the area of arable land decreased in all three scenarios.(3)Carbon stock in Shaanxi Province decreased under all three scenarios,with the decrease in carbon stock in the Guanzhong plain being the main reason for the decrease in carbon stock in Shaanxi province.[Conclusion]The area of ecological land occupied by the expansion of construction land is the smallest under the SSP126 scenario,which takes into account both socio-economic development and the need for ecological protection,and can provide a reference model for the future protection of land resources and high-quality development in Shaanxi province.

关 键 词：土地利用变化 SD-PLUS耦合模型 未来情景预测 碳储量 InVEST模型 

分 类 号：S154.3[农业科学—土壤学]