新型储能金属钒资源需求预测与供应分析  

New Energy-Storage Metal Vanadium Resources:Demand Prediction and Supply Analysis

作　　者：陈仁凤 龙涛[1] 陈其慎[1,2] 张艳飞[1] 邢佳韵 刘敏[1] 王琨[1] 任鑫 商铖红 王晓 Chen Renfeng;Long Tao;Chen Qishen;Zhang Yanfei;Xing Jiayun;Liu Min;Wang Kun;Ren Xin;Shang Chenghong;Wang Xiao(Institute of Mineral Resources,Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences,Beijing 100032,China;School of Earth Sciences and Resources,China University of Geosciences(Beijing),Beijing 100089,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质科学院矿产资源研究所,北京100032 [2]中国地质大学(北京)地球科学与资源学院,北京100089

出　　处：《中国工程科学》2024年第3期74-85,共12页Strategic Study of CAE

基　　金：中国工程院咨询项目“新能源矿产需求预测及安全评价技术”(2022-XY-82);自然资源部中国地质调查局项目(DD20230040);国家自然科学基金面上项目(42271281)。

摘　　要：随着全球太阳能、风能等新能源的快速发展,储能作为解决其发电间歇性等问题的必备设施,未来也将迎来爆发式增长。钒液流电池具有本征安全、全生命周期经济性好及环境友好等特点,且已具备产业化应用条件,在储能领域的重要性不断凸显。本文分析了未来钒液流电池的发展趋势,设置了高速发展、参考和低速发展3种情景,结合钒液流电池单位钒用量,预测了未来不同情景下储能领域钒资源需求趋势。研究发现,未来钒资源需求将快速增长,尤其是在高增长情景下,全球2040年钒资源需求将较2021年增长276~338倍;分析全球钒资源的供应情况,认为随着钒液流电池的迅速发展,未来钒资源将供不应求。针对以上情况,研究提出:一是提高钒液流电池的技术研发力度;二是加大钒矿的地质勘查力度,积极探索新的钒矿资源;三是创新钒钛磁铁矿的提钒方法和技术,提高钒资源利用效率;四是加大钒资源的回收利用;五是重视境外钒钛磁铁矿的布局与开发。As new energy sources such as solar and wind energy develop rapidly,energy storage will usher in explosive growth owing to its ability to solve the problems of intermittent power generation.Vanadium redox flow battery has the characteristics of intrinsic safety,excellent lifecycle economical efficiency,and environmental friendliness,and is ready for industrial application;therefore,such battery becomes increasingly important in the field of energy storage.This study analyzes the development trend of the vanadium redox flow battery.Considering the unit vanadium consumption of the vanadium redox flow battery,it predicts the demand trend of vanadium resources in the energy storage field under three scenarios:high-speed,reference,and low-speed development.The demand for vanadium resources will increase rapidly in the future,especially under the high-growth scenario,and the global demand for vanadium resources in 2040 will increase by 276‒338 times compared with that in 2021.With the rapid development of vanadium redox flow batteries,vanadium resources will be in short supply in the future.In view of the above situations,countermeasures for ensuring the supply of vanadium resources are proposed:(1)promoting technological research regarding vanadium redox flow batteries;(2)strengthening the geological exploration of vanadium mines to explore new vanadium resources;(3)innovating the methods and technologies for extracting vanadium from vanadium-titanium magnetite to improve the utilization efficiency of vanadium resources;(4)increasing the recycling of vanadium resources;and(5)emphasizing the layout and development of overseas vanadium-titanium magnetite.

关 键 词：电化学储能 钒液流电池 钒资源 供应保障 需求预测 

分 类 号：F416.1[经济管理—产业经济] F407.1