财政制度弹性、土地开发模式与经济增长  

Fiscal System Flexibility,Land Development Patterns and Economic Growth

作　　者：侯麟科[1] 徐丽君 于丛 万俊斌 Hou Linke;Xu Lijun;Yu Cong;Wan Junbin

机构地区：[1]山东大学经济研究院 [2]山东理工大学经济学院

出　　处：《宏观经济研究》2024年第5期40-60,共21页Macroeconomics

基　　金：山东省社科规划项目(项目批准号:23DJJJ20)的研究成果。

摘　　要：包容性财政体制保障了地方财政在正式制度以外获取自主财力的弹性空间,兼顾了中央权威与地方经济发展活力。基于土地出让这一主要的包容性财政载体,本文试图为分税制改革后中国经济发展提供一个分析框架。研究结果表明,在“经营土地”的土地发展主义模式下,土地出让通过吸引劳动力、资本等流动性生产要素,推进中国工业化、城镇化进程,实现了中央经济增长与地方自主财力扩张的激励相容,而政府融资放大了土地出让的这一效应。同时,在分权化经济体制下,晋升博弈促使地方官员自利性地调整土地出让行为,致使土地出让呈现周期性变化。拓展性分析表明,土地出让对经济增长和财力扩张的效应已经出现衰退,这一现象在东北和中西部地区尤为显著。未来应进一步规范中央—地方事权和支出责任划分,加强对土地出让收入等非规范性财政收入的监管,确保地方财政可持续发展。The inclusive fiscal system guarantees the flexibility of local fiscal to obtain non-normative fiscal revenue outside the formal system,and balances the central authority with the vitality of local economic development.Based on land concessions as the main vehicle of inclusive finance,this article attempts to provide an analytical framework for China's economic development after the tax reform.The results of the study show that under the‘land management'model of land developmentism,land concessions promote China's industrialization and urbanization by attracting mobile factors of production,such as labor and capital,and achieve incentive compatibility between central economic growth and the expansion of local non-normative fiscal revenue,while government financing amplifies this effect of land concessions.At the same time,under the decentralized economic system,the promotion game prompts local officials to self-interestedly adjust the behavior of land concessions,resulting in cyclical changes in land concessions.Extensive analysis shows that the effect of land concessions on economic growth and financial expansion has declined,especially in the Northeast and Midwest regions.In the future,we should further standardize the division of authority and expenditure responsibilities between the central and local authorities,and strengthen the supervision of non-normative fiscal revenues,such as land concession revenues,to ensure the sustainable development of local fiscal.

关 键 词：财政制度弹性 土地开发 经济增长 自主财力 政府融资 

分 类 号：F124.1[经济管理—世界经济] F812.2F301.2