基于决策树C5.0的水库防洪调度研究  

Investigation into reservoir flood control operations utilizing Decision Tree C5.0

作　　者：王君诺 马晓超 王昊 刘艳丽[3,4,5,6] 李新宇 李淑贤 刁艳芳 WANG Junnuo;MA Xiaochao;WANG Hao;LIU Yanli;LI Xinyu;LI Shuxian;DIAO Yanfang(Shuifa Planning and Design Co.,Ltd.,Jinan 250000,China;College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering,Shandong Agricultural University,Taian 271018,China;The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China;Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development,Nanjing 210098,China;Research Center for Climate Change of Ministry of Water Resources,Nanjing 210029,China;Cooperative Innovation Center for Water Safety and Hydro Science,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]水发规划设计有限公司,山东济南250000 [2]山东农业大学水利土木工程学院,山东泰安271018 [3]南京水利科学研究院水灾害防御全国重点实验室,江苏南京210029 [4]长江保护与绿色发展研究院,江苏南京210098 [5]水利部应对气候变化研究中心,江苏南京210029 [6]河海大学水安全与水科学协同创新中心,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水利水运工程学报》2024年第3期81-90,共10页Hydro-Science and Engineering

基　　金：山东省自然科学基金面上项目(ZR2021ME058);国家自然科学基金资助项目(52079079,U2240203,92047301);山东省黄水东调二期工程科研课题研究技术服务项目(YFZX202202);山东省重点研发计划项目(2019GSF111043)。

摘　　要：水库是一种重要的防洪工程措施,科学的水库防洪调度方式是实现水库设计效益的关键。鉴于常规调度和优化调度存在的不足,以山东省跋山水库为研究对象,提出并评估了一种利用决策树C5.0算法制定水库防洪调度规则的新方法。首先,在根据实测洪水数据构建跋山水库新安江模型的基础上,采用暴雨资料进行洪水模拟;然后,以最大削峰准则为目标进行模拟洪水的优化调度;最后,由跋山水库优化调度方案生成洪水调度数据集,由决策树C5.0算法提取水库调度规则决策树,据此对4场实测洪水进行调度。结果表明:由调度规则决策树制定的调度方案可行,且比实测调度方案更优。以决策树算法制定水库调度规则的过程,可为水库实时防洪调度提供决策支持。Reservoirs,vital for flood control,require a scientifically sound operational approach to maximize design benefits,ensuring significant flood control advantages and fostering sustainable socio-economic development.Addressing drawbacks in conventional and optimal operations,this study proposes a novel reservoir flood control methodology.The Decision Tree C5.0 algorithm is employed,using Bashan Reservoir as a case study.Initially,the Xinanjiang model for Bashan Reservoir is established using measured flood data,generating simulated floods through rainstorm data.Subsequently,these simulated floods undergo optimal dispatching based on the maximum peak cutting criterion.The resulting flood operation dataset is created from optimal operation schemes,and the Decision Tree C5.0 algorithm extracts the reservoir operation rules decision tree.This decision tree is applied to dispatch four measured floods.Results indicate the feasibility and superiority of operation schemes derived from the decision tree compared to measured schemes.The study introduces the steps and processes of formulating reservoir operation rules using the Decision Tree algorithm in data mining technology,offering decision support for real-time reservoir flood control operations.

关 键 词：新安江模型 洪水模拟 防洪优化调度 调度规则决策树 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]