人口因素对资源环境影响的异质性研究  

Research on the Heterogeneity of Impact of Population Factor on Resources and Environment

作　　者：金巍 王慧敏 JIN Wei;WANG Huimin(School of Sociology and Population Studies、School of Social work,Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications,Nanjing 210023,China;High Quality Development Evaluation Institute,Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications,Nanjing 210003,China)

机构地区：[1]南京邮电大学社会与人口学院、社会工作学院,江苏南京210023 [2]南京邮电大学高质量发展评价研究院,江苏南京210003

出　　处：《人口与社会》2024年第3期69-86,共18页Population and Society

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“水环境敏感地区再生水市场化配置体系研究”(23BJY097);江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目“江苏省再生水利用的演变与治理——以环境社会学为视角”(KYCX24_1072)。

摘　　要：利用动态非线性模型对比分析2015—2022年29个OECD人口增长国家、16个人口负增长国家和地区人口因素与资源环境之间的关系。研究发现:首先,OECD人口增长国家、人口负增长国家和地区人口因素对环境污染的影响存在异质性;人口规模在老龄化作用下对二者环境污染的影响呈下降趋势;人口规模在人口规模变动与老龄化作用下对资源消耗的影响在两类国家的走势相反;人口规模在经济发展和科技创新作用下对环境污染与资源消耗均呈抑制或潜在降低作用。其次,人口老龄化在各门槛变量作用下对环境污染与资源消耗的影响在人口负增长国家和地区总体呈下降走势,在OECD人口增长国家,人口老龄化与环境污染和资源消耗的关系不受技术进步和经济发展水平影响。再次,在人口负增长国家和地区,人口规模随人口减少和技术进步对环境污染具有抑制效应,但老龄化加重了环境污染,经济发展对环境污染影响不显著;资源消耗受各门槛变量影响,受到的影响也不显著。最后,人口负增长地区人口规模变小使人口老龄化加重了环境污染,但随着人口老龄化加剧,环境污染受到抑制;在门槛变量作用下人口老龄化对资源消耗整体呈抑制效应。因此,我国应提高绿色科技创新投入,发展多元化、多样性的养老服务体系,倡导按需消费,构建资源节约型社会。The dynamic nonlinear model is used to analyze the relationship between population size change and resources and environment in 29 OECD countries with population growth and 16 countries and regions with negative population growth during 2015-2022.The results show that,firstly,the impact of population size change on environmental pollution in OECD countries with population growth and countries with negative popu-lation growth is heterogeneous;the influence of population size on the environmental pollution of the two groups shows a decreasing trend under the effect of aging;the influence of population size on resource con-sumption under the influence of population size change and aging is opposite in the two types of countries;population size inhibits or potentially reduces environmental pollution and resource consumption under the in-fluence of economic development and scientific and technological innovation.Secondly,the influence of popu-lation aging on environmental pollution and resource consumption under the influence of various threshold vari-ables shows a downward trend in countries and regions with negative population growth,while in OECD coun-tries with population growth,the relationship between population aging and environmental pollution and re-source consumption is not affected by technological progress and economic development level.Thirdly,in countries and regions with negative population growth,population size with population decline and technologi-cal progress has a restraining effect on environmental pollution,but aging aggravates environmental pollution,and economic development has no significant impact on environmental pollution;resource consumption is not significantly affected by each threshold variable.Finally,the decrease of population size makes the aging pop-ulation increase the environmental pollution,and the aging population restrains the environmental pollution in the aging process;under the influence of threshold variables,population aging has an overall inhibitory effect on resource co

关 键 词：人口规模 人口负增长 人口老龄化 资源消耗 环境污染 门槛效应 节约型社会 

分 类 号：C921[社会学—人口学]