考虑破坏模式的危岩崩塌易发性评价--以兴山县古洞口水库首段为例  

Evaluation of the Collapse Susceptibility of Dangerous Rock Considering Failure Modes:a Case Study of the First Section of Gudongkou Reservoir,Xingshan County

作　　者：何涛 易武[1,2] 黄晓虎 白炜琦 魏兆亨 黄向涛 陈陆军 HE tao;YI wu;HUANG Xiaohu;BAI Weiqi;WEI Zhaoheng;HUANG Xiangtao;CHEN Lujun(National Field Observation and Research Station of Landslides in Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Yangtze River(China Three Gorges University),Yichang 443002,China;Key Laboratory of Geological Hazards on Three Gorges Reservoir Area(China Three Gorges University),Ministry of Education,Yichang 443002,China;China Metallurgical Southern Wuhan Iron and Steel Design and Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan 430080,China)

机构地区：[1]湖北长江三峡滑坡国家野外科学观测研究站(三峡大学),湖北宜昌443002 [2]三峡库区地质灾害教育部重点实验室(三峡大学),湖北宜昌443002 [3]中冶南方武汉钢铁设计研究院有限公司,武汉430080

出　　处：《三峡大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第4期52-59,共8页Journal of China Three Gorges University：Natural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学青年基金项目(42007237)。

摘　　要：本文以古洞口—平水段为研究对象,通过分析研究区特有的地质特征与边坡发育情况,将崩塌按受力状态与起始运动方式划分为:滑移式、倾倒式、错断式3类,利用ArcGIS软件的空间分析功能,具体分析了区内危岩破坏模式与各控制因素的相关关系,并结合3类崩塌的发育特征确定相应评价因子,最后采用模糊层次分析法(FAHP)建立指标体系,通过指标体系得出古洞口—平水段崩塌灾害易发性评价结果.结果显示:3类崩塌灾害易发性与此类灾害点的分布密度较吻合,易发性评价结果符合实际.结果表明:距公路越近,崩塌发生的可能性越大,滑移式崩塌主要分布在顺向坡地区,倾倒式崩塌主要分布在逆向坡地区,错断式崩塌主要分布在横向坡地区,评价模型的正确率AUC值均接近于1,说明易发性评价的精度较好,评价结果对研究区崩塌灾害风险管控具有一定的指导意义.Taking the Gudongkou-Pingshui section of Xingshan county as the research object,this paper analyzes the unique geological characteristics and slope development of the study area,and divides the collapse into the following categories according to the stress state and initial movement mode:sliding type,tipping type,and dislocation type.The spatial analysis function of ArcGIS software is used to specifically analyze the correlation between the failure mode of dangerous rock in the region and various control factors,and the corresponding evaluation factors are determined based on the development characteristics of the three types of collapse.Finally,fuzzy analytic hierarchy Process(FAHP)is adopted to establish an index system.Through the index system,the evaluation results of the collapse hazard susceptibility of the Gudongkou-Pingshui section are obtained.The results show that the susceptibility of the three types of collapse disasters is in good agreement with the distribution density of these disaster sites,and the evaluation results of susceptibility are consistent with the reality.The results show that the closer it is to the highway,the more likely the collapse is to occur.Sliding type collapse is mainly distributed in the forward slope area,tipping type collapse is mainly distributed in the reverse slope area,and dislocation type collapse is mainly distributed in the cross fall area.The accuracy value of the evaluation model(AUC)is close to 1,indicating that the accuracy of susceptibility evaluation is good.The evaluation results have certain guiding significance to the risk control of collapse disaster in the study area.

关 键 词：古洞口水库 易发性评价 崩塌 破坏模式 模糊层次分析法 

分 类 号：P642.21[天文地球—工程地质学]