基于Bass模型的新能源汽车销量及碳减排量预测  

Prediction of New Energy Vehicle Sales and Carbon Emission Reduction Based on Bass Model

作　　者：王湘玉[1] 李可强 高丽辉 杨雅婷 王鹏飞[4] Wang Xiangyu;Li Keqiang;Gao Lihui;Yang Yating;Wang Pengfei(School of Business Administration,Hebei Normal University of Science&Technology,Qinhuangdao Hebei 066004,China;School of Mathematics and Information Science and Technology,Hebei Normal University of Science&Technology,Qinhuangdao Hebei 066004,China;School of Finance and Economics,Hebei Normal University of Science&Technology,Qinhuangdao Hebei 066004,China;School of Urban Construction,Hebei Normal University of Science&Technology,Qinhuangdao Hebei 066004,China)

机构地区：[1]河北科技师范学院工商管理学院,河北秦皇岛066004 [2]河北科技师范学院数学与信息科技学院,河北秦皇岛066004 [3]河北科技师范学院财经学院,河北秦皇岛066004 [4]河北科技师范学院城市建设学院,河北秦皇岛066004

出　　处：《河北科技师范学院学报（社会科学版）》2024年第2期103-108,共6页Journal of Hebei Normal University of Science & Technology(Social Sciences)

基　　金：河北省高等学校人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“电动汽车充电桩资源分配与最优定价机制研究”(SQ2023039)。

摘　　要：基于Bass扩散模型,预测我国2023-2030年新能源汽车销量,考虑纯电动汽车和混合动力汽车的碳减排效果差异,计算纯电动汽车和混合动力汽车的平均市场份额,从而测算我国2023-2030年新能源汽车全生命周期碳减排量。结果表明,在考虑能源结构等因素变化的情景下,相较于传统汽油乘用车,推广使用新能源汽车,到2030年碳减排量预计可达4.31亿t,预计减排34.73%。The sales volume of new energy vehicles in China from 2023 to 2030 is predicted based on the Bass diffusion model,and the average market share of EV and HEV is calculated according to the difference of carbon emission reduction to predict the carbon emission reduction of the whole life cycle of new energy vehicles in China from 2023 to 2030.The result shows that compared with traditional gasoline passenger vehicles,the promotion of new energy vehicles is expected to reduce carbon emissions by 431 million tons by 2030 due to the changes in energy structure and other factors,with an estimated emission reduction of 34.73%.

关 键 词：新能源汽车 BASS模型 销量预测 碳减排量 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]