东北地区油气资源型城市碳达峰预测  

Carbon Peak Prediction for Oil and Gas Resource Cities in Northeast China

作　　者：李丽萍[1] 樊桂红 于淇 Li Liping;Fan Guihong;Yu Qi(School of Economics and Management,Northeast Petroleum University,Daqing Heilongjiang 163318,China)

机构地区：[1]东北石油大学经济管理学院,黑龙江大庆163000

出　　处：《河北环境工程学院学报》2024年第3期1-10,共10页Journal of Hebei University of Environmental Engineering

基　　金：黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划项目(20GLE396);东北石油大学校基金项目(2022QYDL)。

摘　　要：东北地区油气资源型城市大量的能源能耗使得二氧化碳排放量持续攀升,预测未来碳排放趋势对各城市制定减排政策具有重要意义。以2001—2022年东北地区油气资源型城市碳排放量为研究对象,采用STIRPAT模型和岭回归分解碳排放影响因子,结合情景分析法设定32种组合情景,预测各情景下东北地区油气资源型城市2023—2035年的碳排放量与碳达峰时间。结果表明:碳排放因素对三个城市碳排放均表现为正向影响;基准路径情景中,盘锦和大庆于2030年实现碳达峰,单一路径情景和组合路径情景中,盘锦、松原和大庆均最早于2025年实现碳达峰。建议各城市要培育发展新型产业、提高能源利用率,进而率先实现碳达峰。The large amount of energy consumption in oil and gas resource cities in northeast China makes carbon dioxide emissions continue to climb,and the prediction of future carbon emission trends is of great significance for cities to formulate emission reduction policies.Taking the carbon emissions of oil and gas resource cities in Northeast China from 2001 to 2022 as the research object,the STIRPAT model and ridge regression were used to decompose the carbon emission influence factors,and 32 combination scenarios were set up by combining with the scenario analysis method to predict the carbon emissions and the time of carbon peaking of oil and gas resource ties in Northeast China from 2023 to 2035 under the scenarios.The results show that carbon emission factors have a positive impact on the carbon emissions of oil and gas resource cities in the Northeast region;Panjin and Daqing peak in 2030 in the baseline scenario,and Panjin,Songyuan and Daqing peak in 2025 in the earliest time in the single-path scenario and the combined-path scenario.Based on these results,it is recommended that cities should culivate and develop new industries and improve energy efficiency in order to take the lead in achieving peak carbon.

关 键 词：东北地区 油气资源型城市 STARPAT模型 情景分析 碳达峰 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]