基于最大熵Copula方法的古黄河宿迁段流域月降雨量模拟  

Monthly Rainfall Simulation of Suqian Section of the Ancient Yellow River Based on Maximum Entropy Copula Method

作　　者：秦志琼 李帆 李春秀 汪海航 QIN Zhi-qiong;LI Fan;LI Chun-xiu;WANG Hai-hang(College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering,Yangzhou University,Yangzhou 225009,China)

机构地区：[1]扬州大学水利科学与工程学院,江苏扬州225009

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2024年第6期6-9,27,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金项目(2019M651976);江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK20200942);江苏省高等学校自然科学研究项目(20KJB570003)。

摘　　要：为了解决Copula函数方法在拟合过程中要先选择函数类型和多变量水文模拟中保留相关性的问题,基于最大熵原理(POME),直接构建Copula函数,而无需进行Copula函数类型的优选,简化了联合概率分布函数的拟合过程。以古黄河宿迁段流域的皂河站、金锁站和泗阳站3个雨量站点39年(1980~2018年)的月降雨量实测资料为研究对象,进行实例分析。通过建立不同站点间的降雨量联合分布,检验最大熵Copula方法的有效性,并利用Gibbs采样法对月降雨量进行随机模拟。结果表明,基于最大熵Copula方法能保留各站点降雨序列的统计特性,以及不同站点间的降雨相关性,验证了该方法的有效性,可为流域多站点间的降雨量相关性分析和水资源规划与利用提供参考。In order to solve the problem that the Copula function method should first select the function type and tain re-the correlation in the multivariate hydrological simulation in the fitting process,this paper directly constructs the Copula function based on the maximum entropy principle(POME),without the need to optimize the Copula function type,which simplifies the fitting process of the joint probability distribution function.The monthly rainfall data of the three rainfall stations of Zaohe station,Jinsuo station and Siyang station in the Suqian section of the ancient Yellow River in 39 years are taken as the research object,and the case analysis is carried out.By establishing the joint distribution of rainfall between different sites,the validity of the maximum entropy copula method is tested,and the Gibbs sampling method is used to randomly simulate the monthly rainfall.The results show that the maximum entropy Copula method can retain the statistical characteristics of the rainfall sequence of each station and the rainfall correlation between different stations,which verifies the effectiveness of this method.Thus,it provides a reference for the analysis of rainfall tion correla-between multiple stations in the basin and the planning and utilization of water resources.

关 键 词：最大熵原理 COPULA函数 联合分布函数 月降雨量 

分 类 号：TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源]