1986~2021年北京市用水结构演变及驱动因素分析  

Analysis of Evolution of Water Use Structure and Driving Factors in Beijing from 1986 to 2021

作　　者：王嘉浩 郝春沣[2] 仇亚琴[2] 李海明[1] 杜军凯[2] 刘海滢 WANG Jia-hao;HAO Chun-feng;QIU Ya-qin;LI Hai-ming;DU Jun-kai;LIU Hai-ying(Laboratory of Coastal Groundwater Utilization&Protection,Tianjin University of Science and Technology,Tianjin 300450,China;Department of Water Resources,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]天津科技大学滨海地下水利用与保护研究室,天津300450 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院水资源研究所,北京100038

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2024年第6期46-49,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52009140)。

摘　　要：为从根本上解决北京市水资源短缺问题,深入分析北京市用水结构演变并掌握其主要驱动因素显得尤为必要。利用水足迹法、信息熵理论综合分析1986~2021年北京市供用水结构变化规律,并基于灰色关联度探究影响用水结构演变的主要驱动因素。结果表明,北京市水足迹由53.0×10^(8)m^(3)增至131.5×10^(8)m^(3),且外贸虚拟水对于缓解用水压力至关重要;北京市区用水结构逐年下降,其余各区用水结构由均衡发展逐渐朝单一化演变,各区用水驱动因素有差异;全市用水结构演变驱动因素由最初农业用水主导(其灰色关联度高达0.9以上),逐渐转化为生活、生态环境为主。To fundamentally solve the problem of water resource shortage, it is necessary to analyze in-depth the evolution of the water use structure in Beijing and grasp its main driving factors. This paper uses the water footprint method and information entropy theory to comprehensively analyze the change pattern of Beijing's water supply and water use structure from 1986 to 2021, and the main driving factors affecting the evolution of water use structure were explored based on the gray correlation degree. The results show that the water footprint of Beijing increased from 5.30 billion m^(3) to 13.15 billion m^(3), and the virtual water of foreign trade occupies an important position in alleviating the pressure of water use;The water use structure of Beijing City declined year by year, and the water use structure of the rest of districts gradually evolved towards homogeneous development from balanced development, and the water use driving factors of the districts were different;The driving factor of the evolution of the city's water use structure was initially dominated by the agricultural water use with a gray correlation as high as 0.9 or more, but now it is gradually transformed to be dominated by living and ecological environment.

关 键 词：用水结构演变 水足迹 信息熵 灰色关联度 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]