运用混合方法发展和分析复杂中介模型--以营商环境促进创新活力,协同新质生产力和“就业优先”为例  

Developing and Analyzing Complex Mediation Models Using Mixed Methods:An Illustration of Doing Business Promoting Innovation Vitality,Synergizing New Quality Productive Forces and Employment-First

作　　者：杜运周[1,2] 孙宁 刘秋辰[1,2] Du Yunzhou;Sun Ning;Liu Qiuchen(School of Economics&Management,Southeast University;Institute of Management Philosophy and Methodology,Southeast University)

机构地区：[1]东南大学经济管理学院 [2]东南大学管理哲学与方法论研究所

出　　处：《管理世界》2024年第6期217-235,共19页Journal of Management World

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目“营商环境激发市场主体活力的动力机制研究”(基金号:72233001);国家自然科学基金面上项目“营商环境多生态要素的耦合机制:组态视角与方法的探究”(基金号:72072030)的资助。

摘　　要：优化营商环境激发创新活力是发展新质生产力的关键,但是创新对就业可能产生挤出效应。如何在发展新质生产力的同时,实现就业优先战略,是一个复杂系统管理问题,需要发展新的方法论。巴伦和肯尼(1986)提出中介效应模型,为分析自变量对因变量的影响机制提供了可能。然而,传统线性中介模型难以解释多个变量相互依赖导致的多重并发因果和等效性等因果复杂性问题。通过将组态视角和复杂性关系引入中介模型,混合QCA与回归分析方法,本文构建了复杂中介模型,提出了复杂中介分析流程。复杂中介模型拓展了传统线性中介效应模型,为细粒度地分析复杂中介问题、悖论问题等提供了新思路和新方法论,也为开发其他复杂模型、分析复杂系统问题提供了方法论借鉴。本文以“什么样的营商环境促进创新活力,协同新质生产力和就业优先”为例说明如何应用这种模型分析复杂系统问题。研究发现5种营商环境生态可以促进创新活力,赋能新质生产力。其中,法治或政务环境较好、市场和创新环境良好的城市营商环境生态,驱动了创新,进而促进就业。但其它2种城市营商环境生态中,由于法治或政务环境不良,在促进创新的同时,挤出了就业。这说明,需要着力优化法治或政务环境,发挥市场和创新的组合作用驱动新质生产力,进而带动就业增长。研究发现对中国城市优化营商环境,在发展创新主导的新质生产力的同时,改善就业具有积极的理论与实践启示。Optimizing the doing business to stimulate innovation is essential to developing new quality productive forces,but this innovation may have a crowding-out effect on employment.Juggling the productivity-employment tradeoff is a complex management system problem.Studying this tradeoff accurately requires a new analytical methodology.Baron and Kenny(1986)proposed mediating effects analysis,which offers the possibility of analyzing the influence mechanism of the independent variable on the dependent variable.However,it is difficult for conventional linear mediation models to accommodate the causal complexity such as multiple conjunctural causation and equifinality due to the interdependence of multiple variables.By introducing the configurational perspective and complexity analysis into the mediation model,this paper advocates using a mixed-method approach based on qualitative comparative analysis(QCA)and regression methods,and proposes a complex mediation analysis process.The complex mediation model expands the conventional linear mediation effect model,extends a new idea and a new method for the fine-grained analysis of complex mediation and paradox problems,and also provides a methodology reference for developing other complex models and analyzing complex system problems.This article illustrates how to apply this model to analyze complex system questions by taking"what kinds of doing business can promote innovation vitality,synergize new quality productive forces and employment-first"as an example.The findings show that there are five recipes of ecosystems of doing business in Chinese cities that can promote innovation and empower new quality productive forces,among which those with good legal environment or government environment,and excellent market environment and innovation environment drive innovation vitality,which in turn promote employment.However,in the other two ecosystems of doing business,the weak legal environment or government environment crowds out employment while promoting innovation.This suggests

关 键 词：混合方法 复杂中介模型 定性比较分析(QCA) 营商环境 创新活力 就业 

分 类 号：F249.2[经济管理—劳动经济] F279.2[经济管理—国民经济]