基于三角模糊数学与事故树模型的油气输送管道风险分析  

Risk Analysis of Oil and Gas Transportation Pipeline Based on Triangular Fuzzy Mathematics and Fault Tree Model

作　　者：王馨玉 Xinyu Wang(School of Public Safety and Emergency Management,Kunming University of Technology,Kunming Yunnan;Yunnan Natural Gas Co.,Ltd.,Kunming Yunnan)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学公共安全与应急管理学院,云南昆明 [2]云南省天然气有限公司,云南昆明

出　　处：《运筹与模糊学》2024年第2期1097-1107,共11页Operations Research and Fuzziology

摘　　要：随着全球经济迅猛发展,油气作为重要战略资源在国民经济中占有极其重要的地位,而压力管道作为长距离输送油气的承载体,其输送可靠性是保证油气能源安全最重要的环节。截至2022年底我国长输油气管网总里程约18万公里,因此确保油气输送安全平稳成为热门研究课题。本文主要聚焦压力管道的爆炸事故,将事故树分析法和三角模糊数学法结合使用,确定基本事件发生概率,准确的找出导致压力管道爆炸事故发生的最基本的事件,从而提出相应的预防措施。With the rapid development of the global economy,oil and gas play an extremely important role as an important strategic resource in the national economy.As the carrier of long-distance oil and gas transportation,the reliability of pressure pipelines is the most important link to ensure oil and gas energy security.As of the end of 2022,the total length of China’s long-distance oil and gas pipeline network is about 180000 kilometers,making ensuring safe and stable oil and gas transportation a hot research topic.This article mainly focuses on the explosion accidents of pressure pipelines,combining the fault tree analysis method and triangular fuzzy mathematics method to determine the probability of basic events,accurately identify the most basic events that cause pressure pipeline explosion accidents,and propose corresponding preventive measures.

关 键 词：压力管道 事故树分析法 三角模糊数学法 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]