欧美“逆全球化”的代价--基于国际经济周期协同的视角  

The Cost of Deglobalization of Europe and the United States:Based on the Perspective of International Business Cycle Co-movement

作　　者：赵静梅[1] 田远杰 钟浩 ZHAO Jingmei;TIAN Yuanjie;ZHONG Hao

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学金融学院

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2024年第5期40-57,共18页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71671141);国家自然科学基金项目(71873108)。

摘　　要：当前逆全球化思潮抬头,单边主义、贸易保护主义明显上升,欧美等国试图通过某些“逆全球化”手段增加中国面对的国际贸易环境政策不确定性。文章基于1980~2020年全球主要39个国家的时间序列数据,测度地区经济周期协同。应用工具变量局部投影模型,研究发现欧美贸易保护主义带来的中国贸易环境政策不确定性导致欧洲、北美洲、亚洲经济周期协同增长趋势下降,最终将阻碍欧美等联盟地区经济一体化进程。中国世界第一贸易大国的地位,将使得欧美等国实施的制裁措施产生“反噬效应”,一损俱损。面对欧美逆全球化,中国应该进一步推动高水平对外开放,坚持多边主义,加强区域合作,更加积极地构建人类命运共同体,引领全球化发展。Currently,the trend of deglobalization is on the rise,and unilateralism and trade protectionism rise significantly.Europe and the United States are attempting to increase the uncertainty of international trade environment policies that China faces through certain“deglobalization”means.This paper measures the regional business cycle co-movement based on the time series data of 39 major countries around the world from 1980 to 2020.Using the instrumental variable local projection model,the research reveals that the uncertainty of China's trade environment policies brought about by trade protectionism of Europe and the United States leads to a downward trend in business cycle co-movement growth in Europe,North America and Asia,ultimately hindering the economic integration process of alliance regions such as Europe and the United States.China's position as the world's largest trading country will lead to a“backlash effect”in the sanction measures imposed by Europe,the United States and other countries,causing harm to all.Faced with the deglobalization of Europe and the United States,China should further advance high-standard opening-up,adhere to multilateralism,strengthen regional cooperation,more actively build a community with a shared future for mankind and lead the development of globalization.

关 键 词：国际经济周期协同 逆全球化 反噬效应 贸易保护主义 贸易环境政策不确定性 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易]