长沙市区散白蚁分飞与气象因素相关性研究  

Study on the correlation between the Reticulitermes swarmingand meteorological factors in Changsha City

作　　者：王旋 卞一飞 刘艳清 邱靖雅 WANG Xuan;BIAN Yifei;LIU Yanqing;QIU Jingya(Hunan Meteorological Logistic Service Centre,Changsha,Hunan 410118,China;Key Laboratory for Meteorological Prevention and Mitigation ofDisasters in Hunan Province,Changsha,Hunan 410118,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南省气象局机关服务中心,湖南长沙410118 [2]气象防灾减灾湖南省重点实验室,湖南长沙410118

出　　处：《中华卫生杀虫药械》2024年第3期286-289,共4页Chinese Journal of Hygienic Insecticides and Equipments

基　　金：湖南省气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2023-QNZX13)。

摘　　要：目的 调查近3年来长沙市区散白蚁于冬春交替季节在房屋建筑周围分飞的特点,结合同期逐日气象要素资料分析其影响因素,为散白蚁分飞监测预警及精准防控提供理论依据。方法 以散白蚁有无分飞进行分组,采用单因素筛查检验统计值组间差异,再用二元Logistic回归分析影响散白蚁分飞的主要气象因素,使用ROC曲线界定最佳预测阙值。结果 长沙市区散白蚁每年开始分飞的时期与温度、降雨、相对湿度3个气象要素显著相关,并根据该气象要素区间值变化发生相应变化。结论 可以按照气象要素划分的区间值进行预测预报,抓住关键时期防治白蚁。Objective To conduct an investigation on the characteristics of the Reticulitermes swarming around buildings in the alternating seasons of winter and spring in Changsha City in the past three years,and analyze the influencing factors based on the daily meteorological data during the same period,providing a theoretical basis for the monitoring,early warning and precise prevention and control of the Reticulitermes swarming in Changsha City.Methods Dividing the Reticulitermes into groups based on the presence of swarming,testing the statistical differences between the groups through univariate analysis,analyzing the main meteorological factors affecting the Reticulitermes swarming by binary Logistic regression,and defining the optimal prediction threshold with ROC.Results The time when the Reticulitermes swarming began each year in Changsha City was markedly related to three meteorological elements:temperature,rainfall,and relative humidity,and relevant changes occurred in correspondence with the interval values of these meteorological elements.Conclusion Forecasts can be carried out in line with the interval value divided by meteorological elements,and the key period can be utilized to control Reticulitermes.

关 键 词：白蚁分飞 气象因子 二元LOGISTIC回归 ROC曲线 

分 类 号：R384.9[医药卫生—医学寄生虫学]