“美国内战论”的缘起与未来  

The Origin and Future of Discussions of US“Civil War”

作　　者：王文 陈修豪 胡倩蓉 Wang Wen;Chen Xiuhao;Hu Qianrong

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学重阳金融研究院 [2]中美人文交流研究中心 [3]中美人文交流研究中心丝路学院

出　　处：《现代国际关系》2024年第6期5-21,139,共18页

摘　　要：美国2020年总统大选后,国内再度兴起关于“第二次内战”可能性的公共讨论。“第二次内战”或包含“热内战”与“冷内战”两种不同的形态。美国社会各界之所以热衷谈论内战,根源在于他们对自身政治极化无可逆转的隐忧,包括对特朗普式右翼威权民粹主义领导人重新影响政治、美国种族结构变动引发社会动荡、美国不平衡的财政状况及经济状况可能导致政治不稳定的担忧。对“内战论”的批评者和怀疑者则指出,关于“第二次内战”的流行讨论是危言耸听、煽动恐惧。“热内战”中短期内在美国几乎没有发生的可能性,但“冷内战”将作为美国社会政治文化基本状态继续存在,并波浪式演进。After the 2020 US presidential election,public discussions about the possibility of a"Second Civil War"have re-emerged in the United States.According to public opinion in the United States,the"Second Civil War"may manifest in two ways-a"hot civil war"or a"cold civil war."The reason all sectors of US society are keen to talk about civil war might be that Americans are worried about the irreversibility of political polarization,including concerns about Trumpian right-wing authoritarian populist leaders'regained influence on politics,social unrest caused by changes in demographics,unbalanced fiscal and economic conditions which may lead to political instability.On the other hand,critics and skeptics of the talk of civil war"point out that the popular discussion is alarmist and amounts to fear mongering.This paper maintains that there is almost no possibility of a"hot civil war"occuring in the US in the short term,but a"cold civil war"will persist and evolve as the status quo of US society,politics,and culture.

关 键 词：美国政治 美国舆论 美国内战 美国分裂 

分 类 号：D771.2[政治法律—政治学]