山东近海毛虾属虾类渔获量对捕捞压力和气候环境要素的响应  

Responses of Acetes catch to climate and environmental factors in Shandong coastal waters

作　　者：高梦娟 穆川川 高彦洁 宋明毅 李敏 任中华 吕振波 GAO Mengjuan;MU Chuanchuan;GAO Yanjie;SONG Mingyi;LI Min;REN Zhonghua;LYU Zhenbo(Binhai Advanced Research Institute of Ludong University,Yantai Shandong 264025,China;Statistical Service Center of Economic and Trade Development Bureau of Binzhou Beihai Economic Development Zone,Binzhou Shandong 256600,China;Agricultural Comprehensive Service Center of Dajijia Sub-district Office of Yantai Development Zone,Yantai Shandong 265500,China)

机构地区：[1]鲁东大学滨海生态高等研究院,山东烟台264025 [2]滨州北海经济开发区经贸发展局统计服务中心,山东滨州256600 [3]烟台开发区大季家街道办事处农业综合服务中心,山东烟台265500

出　　处：《海洋渔业》2024年第3期286-296,共11页Marine Fisheries

基　　金：山东近海渔业资源调查与监测(2022.04-2023.03)(SDGP37000000202202001197C);滨州市毛虾专项捕捞效果评价采购项目(2021.12-2022.05)(SDZE-2022-0011)。

摘　　要：基于1979—2020年山东近海气候环境要素和毛虾属虾类(下文简称毛虾)渔获量数据,运用方差膨胀因子、随机森林模型、广义线性可加模型和相关性分析等方法,研究了山东近海捕捞压力和气候变化对伏季休渔制度实施前后毛虾渔获量的影响,筛选影响山东近海毛虾渔获量的关键气候因子。研究表明,山东近海毛虾渔获量与捕捞努力量之间具有显著的相关性;黄渤海海表温度是影响山东近海毛虾渔获量变动的重要环境要素,毛虾渔获量与黄渤海海表温度呈显著正相关(P<0.05),毛虾渔获量在一定范围内随温度的升高而升高。毛虾种群变动是多种因素共同作用的结果。研究结果可为评估山东省毛虾最大捕捞量、配额制定及为毛虾专项捕捞实施提供科学依据。Based on data of climatic and environmental factors in Shandong coastal waters from 1979 to 2020,variance inflation factor analysis,generalized linear additive model and random forest model were used to analyze the influence of fishing pressure and climate change on Acetes catch before and after summer fishing moratorium and the key climate factors were selected.The results showed that,there was a significant correlation between the catch and fishing effort in the coastal waters of the Bohai Sea where sea surface temperature was an important environmental factor affecting the variation of the catch,there was a significant positive correlation between the catch of Acetes and sea surface temperature in the Bohai Sea(P<0.05).This study can provide a historical basis for the assessment of the maximum catch,the establishment of the quota and the evaluation of special fishing effect of Acetes in Shandong Province.

关 键 词：山东近海 毛虾属虾类 渔获量 气候变化 方差膨胀因子 随机森林模型 广义线性可加模型 

分 类 号：S931[农业科学—渔业资源]