牧户借贷对收入影响实证分析——基于100个固定调查户面板数据  

Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Loans on Herdsmen Household Income--Based on Panel Data from 100 Fixed Survey Households

作　　者：任鹏跃 斯钦孟和 杜富林[1] REN Pengyue;Siqinmenghe;Du Fulin(Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,Hohhot010018,China;Inner Mongolia Academy of Agricultural and Animal Husbandry Sciences,Hohhot010031,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古农业大学,内蒙古呼和浩特010018 [2]内蒙古自治区农牧业科学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010031

出　　处：《现代农业》2024年第3期44-50,58,共8页Modern Agriculture

基　　金：内蒙古自然科学基金项目(2021MS07007)。

摘　　要：为明确草原牧户借贷金额对其收入的影响,笔者于2020—2022年对鄂尔多斯市绒山羊核心养殖区牧户进行调研,采用随机效应模型和中介效应检验探索其影响机制。结果表明:鄂尔多斯地区牧户借贷金额不仅可以直接增加其经营性收入,还可以通过增加养殖业的支出间接促进经营性收入增长,牧户养殖业支出在牧户借贷与收入之间具有显著的中介效应,存在“牧户借贷-养殖业支出-收入增加”的作用机制。鉴于此,地方金融机构应大力发展牧户生产性贷款,满足牧户养殖业生产支出;地方政府、社会组织应积极培训牧民合理使用借贷资金,并为牧户的借贷做担保,积极鼓励信贷公司发放涉农涉牧贷款并向牧民养殖业生产提供信贷支持。In order to clarify the impact of loan amount on herdsmen household income,this article surveyed herdsmen households in cashmere goats core breeding area in Ordos City from 2020 to 2022 and explored the impact mechanisms using the random effect model and mediation effect tests.The results showed that the amount of herdsmen household loans in the Ordos region not only directly promoted their operational income,but also indirectly promoted operational income by increasing animal husbandry expenditure.Animal husbandry expenditure had significant mediating effects between herdsmen household loans and income.There was a mechanism of“herdsmen household loan-animal husbandry expenditure-income increase”.In view of this,the local financial institutions should vigorously develop productive loans for herdsmen to meet the animal husbandry expenditure;local governments and social organizations should actively train herdsmen to use loan funds reasonably,provide guarantees for their loans,encourage finance companies to issue agricultural and animal husbandry loans,and provide credit and loan support for herdsmen household animal husbandry production.

关 键 词：牧户借贷 牧户收入 随机效应模型 中介效应 养殖业支出 

分 类 号：F832.43[经济管理—金融学] F326.3