Risk assessment of high-speed railway CTC system based on improved game theory and cloud model  

作　　者：Yanhao Sun Tao Zhang Shuxin Ding Zhiming Yuan Shengliang Yang 

机构地区：[1]Signal and Communication Research Institute,China Academy of Railway Sciences Corporation Limited,Beijing,China [2]Traffic Management Laboratory for High-Speed Railway,National Engineering Research Center of System Technology for High-Speed Railway and Urban Rail Transit,Beijing,China [3]Signal and Telecommunication Department,China Railway Chengdu Group Company Limited,Chengdu,China [4]Postgraduate Department,China Academy of Railway Sciences,Beijing,China

出　　处：《Railway Sciences》2024年第3期388-410,共23页铁道科学（英文）

基　　金：National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 62203468;Technological Research and Development Program of China State Railway Group Co.,Ltd.under Grant J2023G007;Young Elite Scientist Sponsorship Program by China Association for Science and Technology(CAST)under Grant 2022QNRC001;Youth Talent Program Supported by China Railway Society;Research Program of Beijing Hua-Tie Information Technology Corporation Limited under Grant 2023HT02.

摘　　要：Purpose-In order to solve the problem of inaccurate calculation of index weights,subjectivity and uncertainty of index assessment in the risk assessment process,this study aims to propose a scientific and reasonable centralized traffic control(CTC)system risk assessment method.Design/methodologylapproach-First,system-theoretic process analysis(STPA)is used to conduct risk analysis on the CTC system and constructs risk assessment indexes based on this analysis.Then,to enhance the accuracy of weight calculation,the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process(FAHP),fuzzy decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory(FDEMATEL)and entropy weight method are employed to calculate the subjective weight,relative weight and objective weight of each index.These three types of weights are combined using game theory to obtain the combined weight for each index.To reduce subjectivity and uncertainty in the assessment process,the backward cloud generator method is utilized to obtain the numerical character(NC)of the cloud model for each index.The NCs of the indexes are then weighted to derive the comprehensive cloud for risk assessment of the CTC system.This cloud model is used to obtain the CTC system's comprehensive risk assessment.The model's similarity measurement method gauges the likeness between the comprehensive risk assessment cloud and the risk standard cloud.Finally,this process yields the risk assessment results for the CTC system.Findings-The cloud model can handle the subjectivity and fuzziness in the risk assessment process well.The cloud model-based risk assessment method was applied to the CTC system risk assessment of a railway group and achieved good results.Originality/value-This study provides a cloud model-based method for risk assessment of CTC systems,which accurately calculates the weight of risk indexes and uses cloud models to reduce uncertainty and subjectivity in the assessment,achieving effective risk assessment of CTC systems.It can provide a reference and theoretical basis for risk management of the CTC

关 键 词：High-speed railway Centralized traffic control Risk assessment Game theory Cloud model Paper type Research paper 

分 类 号：U238[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]