2014—2023年北京市传染病突发公共卫生事件流行特征分析  

Epidemiological characteristics of public health emergencies caused by infectious diseases in Beijing from 2014 to 2023

作　　者：张永强[1] 王薇[1] 孙秀梅 杜世昌 韩宛彤 孙鑫贵[1] ZHANG Yong-qiang;WANG Wei;SUN Xiu-mei;DU Shi-chang;HAN Wan-tong;SUN Xin-gui(Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 100013,China)

机构地区：[1]北京市疾病预防控制中心,北京100013

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2024年第12期2277-2281,共5页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：首都卫生发展科研专项项目(2022-1G-4261)。

摘　　要：目的分析近10年来北京市传染病突发公共卫生事件的流行特征,为传染病突发公共卫生事件防控提供参考依据。方法应用描述性流行病学方法对2014—2023年北京市传染病突发公共卫生事件的发生特征进行分析。结果2014—2023年北京市共报告传染病突发公共卫生事件443起,发病7334例,死亡20例,罹患率为1.56%,病死率为0.27%。事件级别主要为未分级事件240起(54.18%)和一般事件202起(45.60%);主要类别为乙类事件202起(45.60%)和丙类事件98起(22.12%);传播途径主要为生活接触传播192起(43.34%)、水和食物传播36起(8.13%)和媒介动植物传播29起(6.55%);主要发生场所为家庭215起(48.53%)和学校136起(30.70%);高峰月为6-8月149起(33.63%)和1-2月105起(23.70%)。结论COVID-19大流行显著改变了北京市传染病突发公共卫生事件的上升趋势,但后COVID-19疫情时代防控工作不容忽视,应针对重点季节、重点场所加强重点传染病及输入性传染病的综合性防控工作。Objective To analyze the epidemic characteristics of infectious disease public health emergencies in Beijing in recent 10 years,and to provide reference for the prevention and control of infectious disease public health emergencies.Methods Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the occurrence characteristics of public health emergencies of infectious diseases in Beijing from 2014 to 2023.Results From 2014 to 2023,a total of 443 public health emergencies of infectious diseases were reported in Beijing,with 7334 cases and 20 deaths.The incidence rate was 1.56%and the fatality rate was 0.27%.There were 240 unclassified incidents(54.18%)and 202 general incidents(45.60%).The main categories were Class B incidents and Class C incidents,with 202 events(45.60%)and 98 events(22.12%)reported respectively.The main transmission routes were life contact transmission,water and food transmission and vector animal and plant transmission,with 192 evens(43.34%),36 evens(8.13%)and 29 evens(6.55%)reported respectively.The main occurrence places were home and school,with 215 events(48.53%)and 136 events(30.70%)reported respectively.The peak months were June-August and January-February,with 149 events(33.63%)and 105 events(23.70%)reported respectively.The prediction accuracy of the grey model GM(1,1)is excellent,but the difference between the predicted value and the actual value in 2020-2023 is large.Conclusion The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly changed the rising trend of public health emergencies of infectious diseases in Beijing,but the prevention and control work in the post-COVID-19 era should not be ignored,and the comprehensive prevention and control of key infectious diseases and imported infectious diseases should be strengthened in key seasons and places.

关 键 词：传染病 突发公共卫生事件 流行特征 预测 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]