海绵城市建设能否缓解城市蔓延?  

CAN SPONGE CITY CONSTRUCTION MITIGATE URBAN SPRAWL?

作　　者：李悦 杨玖伦 谢子涵 余重阳 LI Yue;YANG Jiulun;XIE Zihan;YU Chongyang

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学公共管理学院

出　　处：《城市规划》2024年第6期25-35,46,共12页City Planning Review

摘　　要：海绵城市是一场城市建设理念的系统性变革,以解决城镇化进程中出现的诸多问题。2015年起我国逐步开展“海绵城市”试点,本文运用双重差分模型系统评估了海绵城市建设对城市蔓延的影响。研究发现:(1)海绵城市建设可有效缓解城市蔓延,稳健性检验表明缓解作用显著存在。(2)机制检验发现,相比于数量,绿色基础设施与存量规划相结合的建设方式,通过反向挤出效应显著缓解了城市蔓延。(3)海绵城市建设呈现“边际效应递减”的规律,行政等级与城镇化水平较低的城市获得了显著的缓解效应。(4)海绵城市建设对城市蔓延的缓解效应具有地区选择性,对中部地区城市具有显著影响。未来在中国海绵城市建设的过程中,不能一味追求数量上的提升,绿色基础设施的建设方式是有效实现海绵城市政策效应最大化的重要路径。Sponge cities represent a systemic change in the idea of urban construction,targeting at addressing issues arising from urbanization.Since 2015,China has gradually launched pilot sponge city projects.Using a difference-indifferences model,this paper systematically assesses the impact of sponge city construction on urban sprawl,finding the following results.First,sponge city construction can effectively mitigate urban sprawl,as evidenced by robustness tests that indicate a significant mitigation effect.Second,mechanism tests reveal that compared to quantity,the construction method that combines green infrastructure with the existing block-based planning significantly mitigates urban sprawl through reverse crowding-out effects.Third,sponge city construction exhibits a law of diminishing marginal effects,with cities of lower administrative levels and urbanization levels obtaining more pronounced mitigation effects.Fourth,the mitigation effect of sponge city construction on urban sprawl is regionally selective,with cities in central China seeing a notable influence.Looking ahead,China’s sponge city endeavors ought to eschew a blind pursuit of quantitative growth.Instead,prioritizing the development of green infrastructure stands as an important path to effectively maximize the efficacy of sponge cities.

关 键 词：海绵城市建设 城市蔓延 绿色基础设施 反向挤出效应 PSM-DID 

分 类 号：TU992[建筑科学—市政工程] TU984.11