坡地基坑土方运输路线决策的证据推理方法  

A Decision-making Method Using Evidential Reasoning for Earthwork Haul Road Under Sloping Excavation Pit Construction

作　　者：徐亮 张吉波 魏道江 张坤 XU Liang;ZHANG Jibo;WEI Daojiang;ZHANG Kun(Hubei Industrial and Construction Group Third Construction Engineering Co Ltd,Wuhan 430070,China;School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Hubei University of Arts and Science,Xiangyang 441053,China)

机构地区：[1]湖北工建集团第三建筑工程有限公司,湖北武汉430070 [2]湖北文理学院土木工程与建筑学院,湖北襄阳441053

出　　处：《土木工程与管理学报》2024年第3期43-48,共6页Journal of Civil Engineering and Management

摘　　要：为了对坡地施工条件下基坑土方运输方案进行优选,提出一种坡地基坑土方运输路线决策的证据推理方法。该方法从新建道路成本、土方运输效率和环境影响三个方面构建坡地基坑土方运输路线决策指标体系。根据各备选方案在不同指标上的评价值,采用熵值法确定各指标权重。将各指标评价值视为支持方案决策结果的证据,运用证据推理算法得到各备选方案隶属于不同评价等级的可信度分布,以及各方案的综合效用值,据此进行最优方案的判别。案例分析表明,本文提出的方法是可行的,但信息不确定性及效用值的选取均会在一定程度上影响最终决策结果。相对于传统的加权求和法,基于证据推理的方案决策不仅能为决策者提供各方案的综合效用值,同时,可将各方案隶属于不同等级的可信度分布情况呈现给决策者。In order to optimize the earthwork haul road scheme under slope excavation pit construction,a decision-making method for earthwork haul road in sloping excavation pit using evidential reasoning is proposed.Three aspects including the cost of haul road,the transportation efficiency and environmental impact are selected to construct the decision indicator system for earthwork haul road in sloping excavation pit.According to the evaluation value of each alternative on different indexes,the weight of each index is determined by entropy method.On the base of that,the evaluation value of each index is regarded as the evidence to support the decision-making result of the alternatives,and the evidence fusion algorithm is used to obtain the criterion of the optimal scheme,which comprises both the reliability distribution of the alternatives belonging to different evaluation levels,and the comprehensive utility value of each scheme.The case studies show that the decision-making method proposed in this paper is feasible.However,to a certain extent,both the information uncertainty and the choice of utility value will affect the final decision-making result.Compared with the traditional weighted summation method,the proposed method based on evidential reasoning can not only provide the comprehensive utility value of each scheme for the decision-maker,but also the credibility distribution of each alternative at different levels can be presented.

关 键 词：土方工程 运输路线 方案决策 证据推理 坡地基坑 

分 类 号：TU712.1[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]