城市化发展能够降低福利碳强度吗?——G20国家的经验证据及对中国的启示  

Can Urbanization Reduce the Carbon Intensity of Well-Being?Empirical Evidence from G20 Countries and the Implications for China

作　　者：刘国平 LIU Guoping(Shanghai Lixin University of Accounting and Finance,Shanghai 201620,China;Institute of Sustainable Development and Management,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China)

机构地区：[1]上海立信会计金融学院,上海201620 [2]同济大学可持续发展与管理研究所,上海200092

出　　处：《生态经济》2024年第7期90-99,共10页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金项目“生态福利绩效的理论、指标和实证”(72104185)。

摘　　要：城市化与低碳发展的关系是当前世界各国普遍关注的重要议题。论文依据生态经济学理论,构建了一个福利碳强度指标,基于1990—2020年二十国集团(G20)国家的数据,计算了G20国家的福利碳强度,并运用面板计量模型考察了城市化对福利碳强度的影响,得出以下主要结论:(1)样本期间各成员国的福利碳强度呈下降趋势,表明单位福利水平的提升给碳排放空间带来的压力在逐渐缩小。(2)共有29个年份城市化率的回归系数显著为负。出口贸易和政府规模的系数显著为正。表明总体而言,城市化率的提高有利于降低福利碳强度,出口贸易的增加和政府规模的扩大会推高福利碳强度。(3)发达国家的主要局限是人均碳排放水平较高,而发展中国家的短板在于人均预期寿命偏低。以上结论对中国未来低碳发展的政策启示主要有:要摒弃城市化模式之争,走弹性变通的适宜城市化道路;要促进政府、企业、社会等主体精诚合作,推动治理现代化;要发展高质量出口贸易,助力制造业服务化转型升级。The relationship between urbanization and low-carbon development is an important issue that is widely concerned by all countries in the world.Based on the theory of ecological economics,this paper constructs an index for measuring carbon intensity of well-being(CIWB),calculates the CIWB of G20 countries from 1990 to 2020,and investigates the impact of urbanization on CIWB by using the panel model.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)During the sample period,the CIWB of G20 countries showed a downward trend,indicating that the pressure brought by the increase of unit well-being on carbon emission space was gradually decreasing.(2)The regression coefficients of urbanization rate of 29 years are significantly negative.The coefficients of export trade and government size are significantly positive.In general,the increase of urbanization rate is conducive to the reduction of CIWB,export and government scale will increase CIWB.(3)The main limitation of developed countries is the high level of carbon emissions per capita,while the weakness of developing countries is the low life expectancy.The implications of the above conclusions for China’s future low-carbon development policies are as follows:Firstly,we should abandon the debate on urbanization models,and take a flexible and suitable urbanization road.Secondly,it is necessary to strengthen the sincere cooperation of the government,enterprises,society and other subjects to promote the modernization of governance.Finally,it is necessary to develop high-quality export and help the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry.

关 键 词：城市化率 福利碳强度 低碳发展 生态经济学 

分 类 号：F291.1[经济管理—国民经济] F062.2