中洲河流域降水径流变化趋势特征分析  

Analysis of the Change Trend of Precipitation Runoff in Zhongzhou River Basin

作　　者：陈仲桥 CHEN Zhongqiao(Zhaoqing Hydrology Branch of Guangdong Provincial Hydrology Bureau,Zhaoqing 526060,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省水文局肇庆水文分局,广东肇庆526060

出　　处：《广东水利水电》2024年第6期57-61,共5页Guangdong Water Resources and Hydropower

摘　　要：以中洲河流域1970—2021年长系列年径流、逐月降水量等资料为基础数据,分析流域降水径流年际变化和年内分配规律,并应用Mann-Kendall法对流域降水、径流变化特征进行分析,结果表明:①中洲河流域多年平均降水量为2222 mm,多年平均径流量为11.92亿m^(3),多年平均径流深为1356 mm;年降水量及年径流量年际变化很大,年内分配不均匀;②流域全年、汛期、枯水期径流量总体呈下降趋势,其中枯水期下降趋势显著;③流域全年及枯水期降水量总体呈上升趋势,其中枯水期上升趋势显著;④20世纪90年代以后,流域枯水期降水量和径流量突变特征差异明显,枯水期水文规律受人类活动影响明显。Based on the long-term series of annual runoff and monthly precipitation data from 1970 to 2021 in the Zhongzhou River Basin,this paper analyzes the interannual changes and intra-annual distribution patterns of precipitation and runoff in the basin,and applies the Mann Kendall method to analyze the characteristics of precipitation and runoff changes in the basin.The results show that:①The average annual precipitation in the Zhongzhou River Basin is 2222mm,the average annual runoff is 1.192 billion m^(3),and the average annual runoff depth is 1356mm;The annual precipitation and annual runoff have significant interannual variations,and the distribution within the year is extremely uneven;②The annual,flood season,and dry season runoff of the basin generally shows a downward trend,with a significant downward trend during the dry season;③The annual and dry season precipitation in the basin shows an overall upward trend,with a significant upward trend during the dry season;④After the 1990s,there were significant differences in the sudden changes in precipitation and runoff during the dry season in the watershed,and the hydrological patterns during the dry season were significantly influenced by human activities.

关 键 词：中洲河 降水量 径流量 MANN-KENDALL法 趋势检验 突变检验 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]