中国地方的拉弗曲线——契税税率自主下调与城市财政能力  

Laffer Curves in Chinese Cities:Deed Tax Rate Reduction and Fiscal Capacity

作　　者：唐飞鹏[1] Tang Feipeng(School of Economics,Jinan University)

机构地区：[1]暨南大学经济学院

出　　处：《经济科学》2024年第3期42-69,共28页Economic Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“税务行政罚款的溢出效应及裁量基准优化研究”(项目编号:23BJY031);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目“普惠性减税对城市房价泡沫的影响机制及政策优化研究”(项目编号:23JNQMX24)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：为何在财政重压下,一些地方反而利用自由裁量权下调了契税这一重要地方税的基准税率?本文研究发现,下调契税税率非但没有削弱地方财政能力,反而对其有提升效应,尤其是在三线及以下、投资投机性需求旺盛、房租收入比高的城市。对住房减税的拉弗效应优于对土地及其他房屋,全部标的物一起减税的效果最佳。在机制上,下调契税税率能够产生“放水养鱼”效应,助力楼市“保交付”、“促需求”、“去库存”和经济“稳增长”;但也会产生税费替代效应,增加超额非税收入并导致更高的非税依赖度;由于地方是主动而非被动减税,因此其不会像在中央减税时那样为抵御冲击而加大税收努力或“节流”支出。进一步分析表明,下调契税税率有助于降低税收不确定性、举债规模,且对土地财政的影响保持中性,能够有效保障地方财政可持续。The deed tax is an important local tax in ChinaHowever,some local governments have used their discretion to lower the deed tax rateThis paper finds that lowering the deed tax rate does not weaken local fiscal capacity,but rather has an upward effect on itThis Laffer effect is particularly prominent in cities below the third tier,with strong demand for real estate specula-tion,or a high rent-to-income ratioMoreover,the Laffer effect of housing deed tax reduction is greater than other deed tax reductions,and the Laffer effect of both deed tax reductions is the bestMechanism analysis shows that lower the deed tax rate has significantly promoted real estate sup-ply,demand,and destocking,as well as economic growthAdditionally,it triggers the substitu-tion effect of taxes and fees,increases non-tax revenue and leads to higher non-tax dependenceHowever,local governments do not make greater tax efforts or reduce expenditures due to the deed tax reductionFurthermore,lowering the deed tax rate can reduce local tax uncertainty and debt scale,and has no significant impact on“land finance”,thereby enhancing fiscal sustainability.

关 键 词：契税 财政能力 财政可持续性 拉弗曲线 财政自给度 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学]