基于FLO-2D数值模拟的不同降雨频率工况下八宝镇拱北槽沟泥石流运动特征及危险性评价  

Movement Characteristics and Hazard Assessment of Debris Flow in Gongbei Gully,Babao Town Under Different Rainfall Frequency Conditions Based on Numerical Simulation of FLO-2D

作　　者：王红岩 Wang Hongyan(Qinghai China Coal Geological Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Xining 810001,China)

机构地区：[1]青海中煤地质工程有限责任公司,西宁810001

出　　处：《青海科技》2024年第2期58-69,77,共13页Qinghai Science and Technology

摘　　要：近年来,随着降雨量不断增加,泥石流爆发频率呈上升趋势,其运动堆积特性及防治工程措施直接决定泥石流危害程度及影响范围,也是影响泥石流危险度区划的关键因素。因此,对不同工况条件下泥石流堆积特征及危险范围预测具有较强的现实应用价值。FLO-2D作为一款专用于洪水和泥石流模拟的二维软件,能较完整地分析泥石流的运动状态特征,可用于模拟洪水灾害和风险评估,推算流体运动的流速及堆积深度,合理推估淹没面积。该文以拱北槽沟泥石流为例,通过开展野外详细调查,在查明泥石流物源类型、分布特征、物源储量与流域育灾环境的基础上,模拟分析其在不同降雨频率下(10%、5%、2%和1%)的泥石流运动特征,进而确定泥石流灾害威胁范围、堆积深度、流速等特征参数,并在此基础上采用泥石流强度指标对泥石流灾害进行危险性区划评价,为拱北槽沟泥石流的监测预警与风险防控提供技术依据,以此为该地区或者其他祁连山区城镇泥石流灾害防治及国土空间规划提供科学依据及参考建议。In recent years,with the continuous increase of rainfall,the frequency of debris flow has shown an upward trend.Its movement and accumulation characteristics and control engineering measures directly determine the hazard degree and affected area of debris flow,and are also the key factors affecting the hazard zonation of debris flow.Therefore,the prediction of debris flow accumulation characteristics and dangerous range under different working conditions has a strong practical application value.FLO-2D,as a two-dimensional software specially used in flood and debris flow simulation,can analyze the movement characteristics of debris flow completely,and can be used in flood hazard simulation and risk assessment.It can calculate the velocity and depth of fluid movement,and reasonably estimate the submerged area.Taking Gongbei trough gully debris flow as an example,based on detailed field investigation and finding out the types,distribution characteristics,storage of debris flow sources and the environment for hazard breeding in the basin,this paper simulated and analyzed the movement characteristics of Gongbei trough gully debris flow in different rainfall frequencies(10%,5%,2% and 1%),determined the threatening range,accumulation depth and velocity of debris flow,and evaluated the hazard zonation of debris flow disaster with the index of debris flow intensity.It can provide technical basis for monitoring and early warning and risk control of debris flow in Gongbei trough,and provide scientific basis and reference suggestions for debris flow disaster prevention and territorial spatial planning in this area or other Qilian mountain towns.

关 键 词：泥石流 FLO-2D 数值模拟 危险性 八宝镇 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学] P642.23